Americas Market Update 5 Dec

Fuel prices have moved in mixed directions, and adverse weather is still affecting the Houston Ship Channel and Galveston Bay.

IMAGE: Container ship docked in the Port of Balboa. Getty Images

Changes on the day to 07.00 CST (13.00 GMT) today:

• VLSFO prices up in Houston ($8/mt), New York ($4/mt), Zona Comun ($2/mt) and Los Angeles ($1/mt), and down in Balboa ($19/mt)
• LSMGO prices up in New York, Zona Comun ($5/mt) and Los Angeles ($3/mt), and down in Houston ($19/mt) and Balboa ($3/mt)
• HSFO prices up in New York ($4/mt), unchanged in Los Angeles, and down in Houston ($11/mt) and Balboa ($6/mt)

The port of New York has tracked Brent's upward movement and has recorded price gains across all three conventional fuel grades in the past day.

New York's LSMGO price has gained the most among the grade and has risen to a premium of $123/mt over Houston and $22/mt over Los Angeles.

This has flipped the $36/mt premium that Los Angeles held over New York a month ago.

Weather conditions in New York have improved, with winds blowing between 5–10 knots and waves of 1 foot or less. These conditions are conducive for bunkering.

On the other hand, winds of 25–30 knots, gusting to 35 knots, and 2–3 feet seas have been reported in the lower Houston Ship Channel and Galveston Bay.

A National Weather Service small craft advisory is in effect until midnight tonight.

Bunker fuel demand in Houston has remained stable despite adverse weather conditions affecting the US Gulf Coast. Lead times for all three fuel grades have been around 7–8 days.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has gained $0.21/bbl on the day, to trade at $63.25/bbl at 07.00 CST (13.00 GMT) today.

Upward pressure:

Brent has inched up by $0.38/bbl on the week, holding mostly steady as a potential stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks has fuelled fears of a supply squeeze.

“The peace plan presented to Russia and Ukraine presents the single biggest variable to the outlook for the oil market,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said.

Refinery downtime in the Middle East is projected to average 880,000 b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025, up sharply from 340,000 b/d in the third, according to Kpler’s September 2025 refinery-status update.

Planned maintenance at Saudi Arabia’s SATORP and SASREF and Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah refineries is estimated to bring refinery crude runs down to around 8.6 million b/d, tightening regional product output, Kpler reported.

This crowded maintenance cycle, combined with an ongoing outage at Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery and persistent uncertainty around Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, has further compounded fears of a global supply crunch, energy market analyst Phil Flynn said.

“There’s certainly no sign of an oil surplus in the market right now!” he argued.

Downward pressure:

Market concerns that China’s oil demand could remain muted into 2026 loom large and can act as a headwind for Brent.

Tepid domestic growth, tariff tensions with the US and an accelerating shift toward electrification in transport could weigh on Chinese oil demand by mid-2026, Janet Kong, chief executive of Singaporean refiner Hengli Petrochemical International, told Bloomberg at a conference.

Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim echoed the outlook in remarks to the Financial Times (FT) at the same event. “Next year we have one of the lowest growth rates in China in quite some time,” he told FT, adding that India could even outpace China in oil demand growth.

By Gautamee Hazarika and Konica Bhatt

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