Ammonia will dominate alternative marine fuel mix in 2050 - IEA

The IEA's updated Net Zero Roadmap projects ammonia to lead shipping sector's alternative fuel consumption by 2050, with 44% of final energy consumption compared to only 3% for methanol.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that ammonia bunker demand will constitute 44% of total bunker demand by 2050. And while this is 1% less ammonia than the IEA's projection last year, its overall outlook remains the same.

“Ammonia is the primary low-emissions fuel used to decarbonise shipping [in the net-zero emission scenario], with the contributions from biofuels and hydrogen limited in large part by their relatively high costs,” the IEA says.

“While today there are no commercial ships operating on ammonia, engine manufacturers have successfully tested the technology, and around 150 ammonia-ready vessels were on order at the end of 2022,” it explains.

Based on the IEA's latest net-zero emissions roadmap, the number of ammonia-ready vessel orders is likely to increase by around 20% annually towards 2030, when they will account for 15% of global annual vessel orders.

IEA’s outlook aligns well with earlier predictions from classification societies.

Lloyd's Register, DNV and industry non-profit Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) have all forecast ammonia to eventually become the top bunker fuel.

In a report published last year, MMMCZCS predicted that low-carbon fuels like e-methanol, e-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol will play a significant role in curbing shipping emissions. It expects that green hydrogen and blue ammonia will inevitably be the primary fuels for marine decarbonisation.

DNV predicted last year that ammonia will make up 35% of bunker fuel demand by 2050. It specifically picked blue ammonia as a potential lead candidate to support shipping's net zero ambitions. DNV explained that this is because carbon capture during ammonia production is relatively cheap and simple, whereas green ammonia production would require a significant increase in limited and more expensive renewable energy sources.

Methanol, on the other hand, comes last on the IEA's list. It is forecast to make up a meagre 1% of the marine fuel mix in 2030, rising to only 3% by 2050. This is significantly lower than DNV's forecast, in which e-methanol will account for 2% of marine fuel in 2030 and 14% in 2050.

Meanwhile, the IEA estimates biofuels to account for 8% of bunker fuel demand in 2030, which will rise to 19% in 2050. Hydrogen's share of marine fuel consumption is expected to increase from a lower 4% in 2030, to 19% in 2050.

By Konica Bhatt

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