Biomethane supply could fall short of shipping's 2030 fuel needs - MMMCZCS

Infrastructure, certification and regulation could limit the amount of biomethane that reaches shipping, rather than feedstock availability, according to Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS).

IMAGE: A large container cargo ship sailing. Getty Images

Global biomethane supply could reach around 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2030 under a base-case scenario, per MMMCZCS.

The volume could theoretically cover around 70% of the low-emissions fuel demand that the IMO's proposed Net-Zero Framework (NZF) could create in 2030.

The centre estimates this demand would be equivalent to around 29.7 billion cubic meters (bcm) of biomethane, if biomethane were to meet it entirely.

A faster, policy-driven growth scenario could lift biomethane supply to around 52 bcm by 2030, above the estimated NZF-induced requirement.

However, the actual amount that shipping can use could be lower.

MMMCZCS estimates that if all methane-fuelled container vessels used liquefied biomethane (LBM), shipping could absorb around 11 million tonnes of LSFO-equivalent biomethane by 2030.

That would represent around 56% of the projected 21 bcm base-case supply.

A key enabler for shipping to access this supply is mass balancing, which allows biomethane injected into the natural gas grid to be credited to maritime fuel use elsewhere through a certified chain of custody.

Without a globally recognised system, shipping would have to rely on physically segregated biomethane supply chains, which MMMCZCS said would be difficult and costly to scale.

The centre said shipping's ability to use biomethane will also depend on the growth of the methane-capable fleet and bunkering infrastructure.

Biomethane can only be used by ships capable of burning methane-based fuels, while bunker barges and terminal capacity would also need to expand.

Additionally, shipping will also compete with other sectors for the same supply, and stronger demand from other users could limit the amount available to the maritime industry.

By Gautamee Hazarika

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