Brent crude to hover near $55/bbl in 2026 – EIA

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude's price to average $55/bbl in the first quarter of 2026 – matching its earlier estimate.

IMAGE: Crude oil storage tank. Getty Images

Brent’s price is expected to be capped in the coming months, largely due to the rise in global oil inventories, the EIA said in its latest oil market report.

“Crude oil prices continue to fall as growing crude oil production outweighs the effect of increased drone attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure, and the latest sanctions on Russia’s oil sector,” the EIA said.

While the EIA expects Brent crude’s price to soften further in the months ahead, it notes that OPEC+ output strategy and China’s ongoing stockpiling efforts will act as a buffer against steeper declines.

The US energy agency expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 2 million b/d in 2026, like this year’s rise. Meanwhile, if inventories continue to rise, onshore storage could reach capacity, potentially forcing the market to turn to costlier alternatives such as floating storage.

“As a result, some of the crude oil price declines will likely reflect the higher marginal cost of storage,” the energy agency said in its September short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.

Supply and demand estimates

Global liquid fuels production is expected to grow by 3 million b/d to reach 106.1 million b/d in 2025, about 200,000 b/d higher than the previous estimate, the EIA said.

This year, oil production in Latin America has led growth, as new offshore vessels started operations ahead of schedule in Brazil and Guyana, with additional projects still in development, the EIA added.

In 2026, total production is projected to grow by another 1.3 million b/d to touch 107.4 million b/d. Along with OPEC+ group of producers, countries like the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada will drive production growth, the agency said.

“Together, these four countries [US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada] contribute more than 50% (1.5 million b/d) of total global growth this year and about 60% (0.8 million b/d) in 2026,” it added.

OPEC+ liquid fuels production is expected to average around 33.6 million b/d this year. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition will further increase production by another 100,000 b/d to reach 33.7 million b/d in 2026, the US-based agency said.

The US energy agency forecasts global liquid fuels demand to grow by 1.1 million b/d in 2025 to average 103.9 million b/d – about 100,000 b/d lower than its previous projection.

Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries, the EIA said. In China, total consumption will increase by 250,000 b/d in 2025 and by an additional 300,000 b/d in 2026.

“We expect India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by 70,000 b/d this year and 170,000 b/d next year,” the EIA noted.

Demand will grow by 1.3 million b/d in 2026, to average around and 105.1 million b/d, according to the energy agency.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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