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Brent falls due to larger-than-expected US crude stock build

July 16, 2025

The front-month ICE Brent contract has dropped by $0.36/bbl on the day, to trade at $68.56/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

IMAGE: Getty Images


Upward pressure:

In its monthly oil market report, OPEC has maintained its supply and demand projections for this year, providing some support to Brent’s price today.

The Vienna-headquartered group expects global oil demand growth to hit 1.3 million b/d for both 2025 and 2026.

Global oil consumption is expected to average 105.1 million b/d this year, largely unchanged from OPEC's estimate a month ago.

Downward pressure:

US crude oil inventories rose by 19.1 million bbls in the week ending 11 July, according to estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

The latest data has surprised oil market analysts, who had previously projected a 2 million-bbl draw. An increase in US crude stockpiles generally signals weaker demand and can drag Brent's price lower.

Besides, US President Donald Trump’s approach to securing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine fell short of directly targeting Russia's energy infrastructure.

This news has eased some supply disruption concerns and put further downward pressure on Brent.

“No immediate action from the US against Russia following President Trump’s 'major statement' means that the focus returns to the expected oil surplus later in the year,” ING Bank analysts said.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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