Brent price to average $82/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2024 – EIA
Ongoing withdrawals from global oil inventories and OPEC+ members' decision to extend production cuts will “push [Brent crude spot] prices back above” $80/bbl by the end of this year, the EIA said.
PHOTO: Crude oil barrels. Getty Images
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now projects that Brent spot price will average around $83/bbl in the first quarter of 2025.
“Recent production outages in Libya add a new source of uncertainty for crude oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA said.
Global oil inventories continue to fall by 900,000 b/d in the third quarter of 2024. The inventories are expected to decline by more than 1 million b/d through the first quarter of 2025, as the market adjusts to the extension of OPEC+ supply cuts, the EIA said in its September short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.
“More oil will be taken out of inventories in the fourth quarter of 2024 that [than] we previously expected because OPEC+ announced that they will delay production increases until December,” the EIA said.
The US-headquartered energy agency projects that the global oil market will return to moderate inventory builds by mid-2025 as OPEC+ gradually rolls back its voluntary cuts and non-OPEC supply increases. Brent’s spot price is expected to average $84/bbl in 2025, it said.
“We estimate that global oil inventories will increase by an average of 0.5 million b/d [500,000 b/d] in the second half of 2025,” the EIA said.
Supply and demand estimates
Global liquid fuels and petroleum production is expected to grow by 300,000 b/d in 2024 to about 102.2 million b/d, down from the previously expected growth of 600,000 b/d, the EIA said. However, production growth outside of OPEC+, including the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil, will remain strong in 2025, it added.
Global liquid fuels output is expected to increase by 2.4 million b/d in 2025, “with OPEC+ production increasing by 0.8 million b/d [800,000 b/d] and 1.6 million b/d of production growth from countries outside of OPEC+,” the EIA said.
The EIA forecasts global liquid fuel demand to average at 103.08 million b/d in 2024, up by 180,000 b/d from its previous forecast, according to the data provided by the US energy agency. It has also increased its 2025 demand growth projection by 100,000 b/d to 104.6 million b/d.
Global oil demand growth continues to face headwinds due to the apparent economic slowdown as well as a decline in monthly crude oil refining activity in China, the EIA said. “[Oil] market concerns over economic and oil demand growth, particularly in China, have increased, causing oil prices to fall,” the energy agency added.
Consumption of liquid fuels in China is now expected to grow by about 100,000 b/d in 2024 and about 300,000 b/d in 2025, which is lower than the average growth of 500,000 b/d achieved in 2015–2019.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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