China maintains “stable ceiling” on non-state crude imports for 2024 – JLC

China has maintained the ceiling of 243 million mt (4.85 million b/d) for non-state crude imports for 2024, market intelligence provider JLC reported.

PHOTO: Oil storage tanks in the port in Tsing Yi, Hong Kong. Getty Images

China has maintained the same ceiling for a fourth consecutive year.

The Chinese government is focused on removing small and outdated refining units and “aims to keep its crude refining capacity at no more than 1.0 billion mt/year by 2025,” JLC said.

The country’s crude quota ceiling for non-state imports crossed the 200 million mt mark in 2019, “but the growth came to a halt in 2020 when some conventional refineries in Shandong were phased out and the country announced its carbon peak and carbo neutrality targets,” JLC said.

The quota ceiling saw a substantial surge in 2021, after new refining-chemical complexes became operational.

However, it is essential to understand that the imposed limit on non-state crude imports does not guarantee that China will “actually grant quotas on 243 million mt of imports for 2024,” JLC added.

There has been a notable disparity between the stated ceiling quota and the actual allocated quota in both 2022 and 2023, JLC said. “For instance, China also set the ceiling at 243 million mt for 2023 and 2022, but released quotas on only about 203.64 million mt of imports for 2023 and 178 million mt for 2022,” JLC added.

Among the biggest non-state refiners, Yulong Petrochemical is expected to gain quota for its 20 million mt/year (400,000 b/d) new refinery that will commence operation in 2024, JLC said. “The company may not win full quota yet for 2024,” it further added.

China’s total crude oil distillation (CDU) capacity currently stands at 959 million mt/year (19.18 million b/d), JLC said. The total refining capacity is expected to reach 979 million mt/year (19.59 million b/d) after Yulong Petrochemical becomes operational in 2024, the market intelligence provider further added.

“The country’s targets to keep its refining capacity under control and tight quota on oil products exports for the last quarter of 2023 are indications of stepped-up efforts to rein in the country’s energy consumption and achieve its carbon emission targets,” JLC added.

By Aparupa Mazumder 

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