China’s oil demand to peak by 2027 – JLC

Oil demand in the world’s second-largest consumer is expected to peak around 2027, market intelligence provider JLC reported citing Chinese state-owned oil company Sinopec.

PHOTO: Oil pump jacks with the Chinese flag in the background. Getty Images

China’s oil consumption is expected to peak at 790-800 million mt by 2027, JLC reported citing Sinopec’s recent market report, China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 version).

The analysis comes amid a slowdown in Chinese oil demand growth, which has put downward pressure on Brent crude’s price recently.

Chinese officials have pledged to roll out a new stimulus package next year to revive the country’s economy. However, oil market analysts remain cautious, tempering expectations of a significant boost to oil demand from these measures.

Recent Chinese economic data “casts a stark light on the mounting challenges,” SPI Asset Management’s managing partner Stephen Innes said. He added that it has revealed “a significant slowdown” across pivotal sectors like commodities.

Total oil consumption in China is expected to fall by an average of about 2% each year from 2030 to 2040, and by about 4% each year from 2040 to 2050, JLC reported citing Sinopec.

Growing demand in the country’s chemical sector will be the “key contributor” to the oil peak, JLC reported. Oil consumption is projected to peak at 790-800 million mt (per year) between 2025 and 2030, JLC reported.

The country will likely consume about 750 million mt and 770 million mt of crude oil this year and in 2025 respectively, Sinopec said in its report.

This expected decline in oil demand can be attributed to insufficient demand from the manufacturing and industrial sectors, an uptick in electric vehicle use, the growth in new energy sectors, increasing use of LNG trucks, etc, the oil producer said.  

By Aparupa Mazumder

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