East of Suez Market Update 5 Dec

Bunker benchmarks across the East of Suez have mostly moved up, and prompt bunker supply is tight across all grades in Fujairah.

IMAGE: Vessel docked at berth in Fujairah, UAE. Port of Fujairah

Changes on the day to 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT) today:

• VLSFO prices up in Zhoushan ($18/mt), and unchanged in Fujairah and Singapore
• LSMGO prices up in Zhoushan ($6/mt), Singapore ($4/mt) and Fujairah ($3/mt)
• HSFO prices up in Singapore ($2/mt) and Fujairah ($1/mt), and down in Zhoushan ($1/mt)

Prices of most conventional fuels have recorded gains, tracking the rise in Brent.

The price of VLSFO at Zhoushan has recorded the steepest increase across grades and ports in the past session. A higher-priced 150-500 mt VLSFO stem, fixed at $468/mt, may have provided upward pressure to the benchmark.

Zhoushan's VLSFO is now at a premium of $28/mt to Fujairah and $26/mt to Singapore.

On the other hand, two lower-priced VLSFO stems were fixed at Singapore and Fujairah each in the past session. However, the uptick in Brent may have stabilized the grade’s price, resulting in Singapore and Fujairah’s VLSFO prices remaining unchanged from yesterday.

Prompt bunker supply in Fujairah is tight, according to a source. Several suppliers are struggling with tight delivery schedules, but urgent stems can be delivered at a premium.

In Singapore, VLSFO lead times in remain inconsistent, stretching from about four days to as long as 11 days.

In Zhoushan, demand remains subdued, and suppliers are recommending 4–7 days of lead time for all grades.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has edged $0.24/bbl higher on the day, to trade at $63.26/bbl at 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT) today.

Upward pressure:

Brent has inched up by $0.38/bbl on the week, holding mostly steady as a potential stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks has fuelled fears of a supply squeeze.

“The peace plan presented to Russia and Ukraine presents the single biggest variable to the outlook for the oil market,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said.

Refinery downtime in the Middle East is projected to average 880,000 b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025, up sharply from 340,000 b/d in the third, according to Kpler’s September 2025 refinery-status update.

Planned maintenance at Saudi Arabia’s SATORP and SASREF and Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah refineries is estimated to bring refinery crude runs down to around 8.6 million b/d, tightening regional product output, Kpler reported.

This crowded maintenance cycle, combined with an ongoing outage at Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery and persistent uncertainty around Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, has further compounded fears of a global supply crunch, energy market analyst Phil Flynn said.

“There’s certainly no sign of an oil surplus in the market right now!” he argued.

Downward pressure:

Market concerns that China’s oil demand could remain muted into 2026 loom large and can act as a headwind for Brent.

Tepid domestic growth, tariff tensions with the US and an accelerating shift toward electrification in transport could weigh on Chinese oil demand by mid-2026, Janet Kong, chief executive of Singaporean refiner Hengli Petrochemical International, told Bloomberg at a conference.

Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim echoed the outlook in remarks to the Financial Times (FT) at the same event. “Next year we have one of the lowest growth rates in China in quite some time,” he told FT, adding that India could even outpace China in oil demand growth.

By Samantha Shaji and Konica Bhatt

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