East of Suez Market Update 5 Nov

Prices in East of Suez ports have fallen across all grades, while availability of VLSFO and HSFO is tight in Zhoushan.

IMAGE: Keelung city's skyline and port at dusk. Getty Images

Changes on the day to 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT) today:

• VLSFO prices down in Zhoushan ($82/mt), Fujairah ($73/mt) and Singapore ($67/mt)
• LSMGO prices down in Fujairah ($122/mt), Zhoushan ($117/mt) and Singapore ($86/mt)
• HSFO prices down in Zhoushan ($125/mt), Singapore ($96/mt) and Fujairah ($58/mt)

Zhoushan’s VLSFO price has dropped by $82/mt, the steepest decline among the three major Asian bunker ports. The price now stands at a $10/mt premium over Singapore and a $40/mt discount to Fujairah.

Zhoushan’s HSFO price has fallen by more than its VLSFO price, widening the port’s Hi5 spread from $62/mt to $105/mt. The spread now matches Singapore’s and sits below Fujairah’s $211/mt.

Zhoushan’s VLSFO monthly average price has risen every month since June, from $714/mt to $947/mt in October, the highest since July 2022. The HSFO monthly average price has climbed every month since July, from $550/mt to $883/mt in October, the highest since at least November 2021. So far in November, the averages stand at $940/mt for VLSFO and $859/mt for HSFO.

VLSFO and HSFO availability remains tight in Zhoushan despite subdued demand. Lead times for both grades have increased to around 15 days from 12 days last week. Low inventories and adverse weather have restricted supply, while customs formalities have further delayed delivery schedules, a source said. In contrast, LSMGO availability is good, with lead times falling to two days from four days a week ago.

In Taiwan, VLSFO and LSMGO deliveries can be arranged within two days at Keelung, Hualien, Kaohsiung and Taichung. Lead times are largely unchanged from last week.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has plunged by $8.22/bbl on the day, to trade at $95.31/bbl at 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT) today.

Upward pressure:

Brent crude’s price has found some support from a further drop in US crude and fuel stocks, and from signs that the conflict with Iran is not yet over.

US commercial crude stocks fell by 865,000 bbls to 409.8 million bbls in the week ending 30 October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“When including releases from strategic reserves total crude, inventories fell by 1.26m barrels [1.26 million bbls],” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump defended the Middle East war yesterday, telling reporters the US had to act against Iran and was continuing to do so, AP reported.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught on fire in separate incidents after attempting to use unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.

Downward pressure:

Brent crude’s price has plunged far below $100/bbl threshold after Trump’s Republican Party lost control of both houses of Congress in the US midterm elections, a vote the oil market had watched closely for clues on the future of the Iran war.

Democrats won majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

US Vice President JD Vance blamed the war with Iran for his party’s defeat on social media platform X, deferring from Trump’s defence of the conflict.

Vance said many Republican voters had backed Democrats because of the war, the cost of living and the US relationship with Israel. “The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone,” he wrote on X.

Trump said he knew the war would affect the elections, but said he was fine with Vance’s post, according to the Associated Press.

Brent crude’s price has declined “following the Democrats’ clean sweep in the US midterms as hopes grow that the political shift could accelerate efforts to bring the war with Iran to an end,” ING Bank’s analysts added.

By Tuhin Roy and Aparupa Mazumder

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