EIA maintains Brent’s price forecast at $74/bbl in 2025
The decreasing crude oil production in Iran and Venezuela in the first half of this year is expected to keep Brent crude’s price around $74/bbl in 2025, the EIA said in its latest oil market report.
CONCEPT: Oil barrels with graphs depicting price fluctuation. Getty Images
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the Brent spot price will average around $74/bbl in 2025 - unchanged from its previous monthly forecast - and fall by 8% to an average of $68/bbl in 2026.
Stricter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela’s oil and energy sectors will likely dent global oil production growth in the first and second quarters of 2025, the US energy agency said. The latest round of US sanctions against Tehran, introduced in late-February, “have the potential to remove significant volumes of crude oil from the market,” the EIA said.
Besides, the US government set a deadline of 3 April for oil company Chevron to cease operations in Venezuela. Despite the existing sanctions, Chevron had previously held a license allowing it to operate in the country and export crude oil to the US.
“We expect the recent announcement revoking licenses for Venezuelan oil production and exports to the United States will reduce Venezuela’s oil production beginning in March, tightening near term oil market balances significantly,” the EIA added.
Despite these near-term supply concerns, the “gradual and flexible” return of the 2.2 million b/d of crude oil committed by OPEC+ producers, coupled with continued supply growth from producers outside of the OPEC+ agreement, primarily in the US, is expected to add downward pressure on Brent’s price in 2026, the EIA said in its March short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.
Additionally, a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine could add Russian oil volumes back into the market and push Brent's price lower. However, “the extent to which OPEC+ adheres to announced production increases will be a key factor for oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA said.
Supply and demand estimates
The gradual growth in oil production will lead to a 1.4 million b/d increase in global oil output in 2025 and a 1.6 million b/d increase in 2026, the US agency said.
Global liquid fuels and petroleum production is expected to reach about 104.2 million b/d in 2025, the EIA said. Countries that are not part of the OPEC+ agreement will drive global liquid fuels production in 2025, it added. Production growth from non-OPEC+ countries, including the US, Canada and Guyana will be the main drivers of growth.
The US energy agency forecasts global liquid fuel demand to grow by 1.3 million b/d to average 104.1 million b/d in 2025 and by 1.2 million b/d to average 105.3 million b/d in 2026. India’s liquid fuels consumption is expected to grow by 300,000 b/d in both 2025 and 2026, driven by rising demand for transportation fuels, it added.
Global oil demand growth in China is expected to get a boost as economic stimulus efforts taken by the country will come into effect this year, the EIA said. China’s oil consumption is expected to grow by 300,000 b/d in 2025 and by 200,000 b/d in 2026.
“The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday, projected almost a perfect balance between global oil supply and demand this year, compared with expectations of a 480,000 b/d surplus laid out in its February report,” VANDA Insights’ founder and analyst Vandana Hari remarked.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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