EIA raises Brent price outlook to average $105/bbl in 2H 2022
Brent is now forecast to average $104.78/bbl in second half of this year, before falling to $95.13/bbl average next year, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest short-term outlook.
PHOTO: Oil refinery complex with big American flag displayed, and fumes coming out from the chimney. Getty Images
The EIA's latest price forecast for this year is $0.73/bbl higher from its earlier projection of a $104.05/bbl average.
The EIA cautions that the forecast is highly uncertain amid the evolving situation in Ukraine and a potential slowdown in global economic activity, which could weigh on energy consumption.
It goes on to say that actual prices will depend on how existing and potential future sanctions on Russia will affect production and sale of Russian oil in the global market. Price movements will also depend on production decisions by OPEC+. The group is scheduled to meet on 5 September.
It expects global consumption of liquid fuels to grow by 2.1 million b/d this year and by another 2.1 million b/d in 2023.
The EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production to rise by 2.19 million b/d to average 28.47 million b/d this year, and rise further to 29.04 million b/d next year.
US oil production is projected to increase to 12.70 million b/d next year, from this year’s production estimate of 11.86 million b/d. This would mean record US crude oil production next year. The current record is 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019.
