EIA sees Brent to average at $95/bbl next year amid lower production forecasts

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts the global oil production to average 100.6 million b/d in 2023, down by 100,000 b/d from its previous estimate.

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It sees crude oil output from OPEC member nations to average at 28.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of this year, and at 28.9 million b/d in 2023.

However, it expects liquid fuels production from Russia to fall to an average of 9.3 million b/d next year due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and sanctions on its seaborne imports.

“Among the non-OPEC participants in OPEC+, the majority of the reductions in OPEC+ production will come from Russia,” EIA says in its November short-term energy outlook report.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts a 1.2 million b/d decline in global oil inventories in the first quarter of next year, and 300,000 b/d throughout next year, raising concerns about a global oil supply crunch.

It sees global demand for crude oil and liquid fuels to average at 100.9 million b/d next year, largely unchanged from its October projection of 101.03 million b/d.

By Konica Bhatt

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