EIA sees Brent’s price to “decline significantly” in 2025 and 2026

Brent’s price will decline sharply in 2025 and 2026, largely due to mounting global oil inventories, as OPEC continues to ramp up production, the EIA said in its latest oil market report.

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The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the Brent crude spot price will average around $59/bbl in the fourth quarter of this year, as the rise in global oil supply drives-up oil inventories to a surplus.

The EIA expects Brent crude’s price in 2026 to average around $51/bbl – the same as its previous forecast.

The forecasts come as OPEC+ producers continue to increase their combined output levels in a bid to regain market share, according to analysts. Earlier this month, the coalition agreed to collectively increase supply by 137,000 b/d in October.

The US energy agency expects global oil inventory builds to average more than 2 million b/d between the third quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2026, it said.

“We forecast that significant growth in global oil inventories will cause crude oil prices to fall in the coming months, as summer seasonal demand wanes and global oil supply growth accelerates,” the energy agency said in its September short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.

Additionally, low oil prices in early 2026 will “lead to a reduction in supply” by OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later in 2026, the agency added.

Supply and demand estimates

Global liquid fuels and petroleum production is expected to grow by 2.3 million b/d to reach 105.5 million b/d in 2025, about 100,000 b/d higher than the previous estimate, the EIA said.

“The planned increases to OPEC+ production and strong supply growth outside of the group continue to drive global liquid fuels production growth in our forecast,” the agency added.

Countries outside of OPEC+ is expected to increase total liquid fuels production by 1.7 million b/d this year. Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the US will lead the increase, the agency noted.

OPEC+ crude oil production is expected to increase by 600,000 b/d to hit 36.6 million b/d this year. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition will further increase crude oil production by another 500,000 b/d to reach 37.05 million b/d in 2026, the US-based agency projected.

However, “OPEC+ output will flatten out [in 2026] as the group aims to keep inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and prevent oil prices falling further,” the EIA said.

The US energy agency forecasts global liquid fuels demand to grow by 900,000 b/d to average 103.8 million b/d in 2025, about 100,000 b/d more than its previous estimate.

“Ongoing trade negotiations and legal challenges related to tariffs between the United States and its trading partners also could affect economic and oil demand growth,” the US agency remarked.

In 2026, global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.3 million b/d to average 105.1 million b/d, according to the EIA.  

By Aparupa Mazumder

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