Europe & Africa Market Update 10 Dec

Bunker fuel prices in major European and African ports have dropped, and prompt supply remains tight in the Gibraltar Strait.

Changes on the day to 09.00 GMT today:

• VLSFO prices down in Rotterdam, Gibraltar ($3/mt) and Durban ($2/mt)
• LSMGO prices down in Gibraltar ($19/mt) and Rotterdam ($4/mt)
• HSFO prices unchanged in Gibraltar, and down in Durban ($2/mt) and Rotterdam ($1/mt)
• Rotterdam B30-VLSFO premium over VLSFO down $9/mt to $257/mt
• Gibraltar B30-VLSFO premium over VLSFO down by $4/mt to $361/mt

Benchmark bunker prices have mostly edged lower over the past session, tracking the Brent price movement.

Rotterdam’s B30-VLSFO price has dropped by $12/mt in the past day, narrowing its premium over the port’s VLSFO by $9/mt. Meanwhile, the port's B30 blend’s premium has climbed by roughly $67/mt since 1 January 2025, according to ENGINE’s historical price data.

Gibraltar’s LSMGO price has declined more steeply compared to Rotterdam, contracting its price premium over Rotterdam by $15/mt in a single day.

Prompt bunker supply remains tight in the Gibraltar strait ports, with buyers advised to book around a week ahead to get more coverage from suppliers, a trader said.

Some suppliers are running around 12 hours late on deliveries in Gibraltar, while in the neighbouring Algeciras port, some suppliers are running 4-18 hours behind schedule, port agent MH Bland said.

Additionally, extremely rough weather with winds above 40 knots and waves above 4 metres are forecast in Gibraltar between 13-14 December, which could lead to suspension of bunkering operations.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has moved $0.42/bbl lower on the day, to trade at $61.88/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

Upward pressure:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a drop in US crude stocks, providing some upward support to Brent crude’s price.

US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.8 million bbls in the week ending 5 December, according to API estimates.

A drop in US crude stocks usually signals stronger demand and can offer some support to Brent’s price.

“American Petroleum Institute numbers yesterday were supportive for crude [prices],” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

Downward pressure:

Ongoing peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine has dragged Brent’s price lower so far this week.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with other European partners will present "refined documents" on a ceasefire plan with Russia soon, Reuters reported.

Should Ukraine and Russia reach a peace agreement, global sanctions on Russian companies may be eased, allowing sanctioned oil volumes back into the market, market analysts project.

In other news, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest oil market outlook, estimating that US crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.61 million b/d in 2025.

“A bearish gloom has been developing over the [oil] market in recent months, not helped by a bearish report from the Energy Information Administration,” ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

The EIA expects global liquid fuels output to rise by 3 million b/d in 2025, reaching 106.1 million b/d. Production is projected to increase by a further 1.3 million b/d in 2026, lifting total supply to 107.4 million b/d.

By Nachiket Tekawade and Aparupa Mazumder

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