Fuel Switch Snapshot: Conventional gains hand biofuels back their edge

B100 nears parity with VLSFO in Rotterdam

LBM $6/mt cheaper than HSFO for vessels with diesel SS engines

Singapore's LNG price jumps by $90/mt

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific content to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market over the past week.

Conventional fuel prices have risen at both Rotterdam and Singapore over the past week while B100 and Rotterdam's B30 blends have fallen, handing the fuels that are favoured by EU regulations back much of the ground they lost last week. Four spreads have flipped outright, two at each port.

B100's premium over VLSFO in Rotterdam has narrowed by $42/mt to $10/mt, leaving the two fuels within touching distance. Its premium over HSFO has narrowed by $71/mt to $107/mt.

The OceanScore FuelEU pooling index held flat this week, after last week's €12.85/mtCO2e drop, so the compliance side of the move came from a rise in Dec26 EUA prices. ENGINE-assessed pooling values for B100 still rose $2/mt on EU-EU voyages, driven by a firmer euro.

B100's discount to LSMGO in Rotterdam has widened by $61/mt to $523/mt.

In Singapore the pattern holds, but the gaps are wider. B100's premium over VLSFO has narrowed by $24/mt to $298/mt, and its discount to LSMGO has widened by $11/mt to $42/mt.

Rotterdam's B30-VLSFO has flipped from a $15/mt premium over VLSFO to a $23/mt discount, while B30-LSMGO's discount to LSMGO has widened by $44/mt to $138/mt.

Rotterdam's liquefied biomethane (LBM) has moved further. For vessels with diesel slow-speed (diesel SS) engines, it has flipped from a $16/mt premium over HSFO to a $6/mt discount, making it the cheapest fuel in the set on an EU-EU voyage. Its discount to VLSFO has narrowed by $7/mt to $103/mt.

For vessels with Otto medium-speed (Otto MS) engines, the position is less favourable, with methane slip both lifting the EUA bill and eroding the compliance surplus. LBM's premium over VLSFO has widened by $10/mt to $66/mt, and its premium over B100 has widened by $52/mt to $56/mt, although the two fuels typically cater to different vessel types and are not directly comparable.

Rotterdam's LBM holds discounts to LSMGO of $467-636/mt depending on engine type, $9-12/mt wider than a week earlier.

LNG has lost ground at both ports. Its premium over VLSFO in Rotterdam has widened by $43-46/mt to $182-343/mt depending on engine type, and in Singapore the premium over VLSFO for vessels with Otto MS engines has widened by $75/mt to $353/mt.

Singapore's LNG has moved enough to turn two spreads around. For vessels with Otto MS engines, it has flipped from a $74/mt discount to a $14/mt premium over LSMGO, and B100 has swung from a $43/mt premium over LNG to a $56/mt discount, though again the two are not directly comparable.

For vessels with diesel SS engines, LNG holds its discount to LSMGO, but that has narrowed by $86/mt to $67/mt.

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam's conventional fuel prices have gained $24-53/mt over the past week, with HSFO up the most. The port's B100 price has fallen by $18/mt and its B30 grades by $1-14/mt.

The Dutch ZRE A price has remained unchanged at €130/mtCO2e over the past week.

Fuel availability has been tight for prompt supplies in the ARA, with buyers advised lead times of 5-7 days to get good coverage from suppliers, a trader said.

Singapore's HSFO and VLSFO prices have gained $38/mt and $16/mt respectively, while LSMGO has edged up $3/mt. B100 has fallen by $8/mt.

Prompt bunker availability is tight in Singapore across all three main conventional grades. Suppliers are quoting lead times of about 4-9 days for LSMGO, 7-19 days for good VLSFO cover and 6-12 days indicatively for HSFO, a trader said.

The gains came as front-month ICE Brent futures rose by $3.73/bbl ($27/mt) to $92.78/bbl ($680/mt), while Dec26 EUA prices rose by $3.41/mtCO2e to $98.28/mtCO2e, adding to the compliance cost of every fossil grade.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam's LNG prices have gained $67-70/mt depending on engine type, and the port's LBM prices $31-34/mt.

LBM's discount to LNG in Rotterdam has widened by $36/mt to $277-285/mt over the past week.

Singapore's LNG prices have jumped by $89-90/mt, the largest weekly move of any fuel at either port.

By Erik Hoffmann

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