Fuel Switch Snapshot: Liquid fuel prices drop

VLSFO availability improves in Singapore

B100 cheaper than HSFO with EU regs

LNG becomes costliest fuel option in Rotterdam

B100 (100% biofuel) is now $32/mt cheaper than HSFO in Rotterdam when factoring in EU ETS compliance costs and FuelEU pooling benefits for voyages between two EU ports.

EU regulations make liquid biomethane (LBM) $121/mt cheaper in Rotterdam than HSFO, but only if used in a diesel slow-speed (SS) marine engine with the lowest methane slip of 0.2%.

If the fuel is used in an Otto medium-speed engine with a 3.1% methane slip, LBM is actually $14/mt more expensive than HSFO, even with regulatory benefits.

Regardless of the engine type, Rotterdam's VLSFO-equivalent liquefied natural gas (LNG) benchmark is now more expensive than all conventional fuels.

Even when accounting for the EU ETS and FuelEU penalties and considering that the fuel is used in a diesel SS engine, the theoretical price of LNG remains $66/mt higher than VLSFO and only $1/mt cheaper than LSMGO.

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam's VLSFO-equivalent B100 price has declined by $66/mt, while Singapore’s price has dropped by $10/mt over the past week.

PRIMA Markets assessed the Dutch HBE rebate for B100 in Rotterdam at $369/mt on Friday, marking a $12/mt increase from the previous week.

Rotterdam’s VLSFO price has remained relatively stable, with only a modest $4/mt decline—smaller than the $7/mt drop seen in the front-month ICE Brent futures contract.

Singapore has seen a larger $16/mt drop, partly due to improved VLSFO availability. Recommended lead times for the grade have shortened from 7–11 days last week, to 4–8 days now.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam’s LNG price has climbed for a third week in a row, this time by $26/mt over the past week. This increase is linked to a 3% rise in the front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas contract, a key European gas benchmark.

The Dutch TTF benchmark has risen due to increased demand due to colder weather and increased draws from underground gas reserves in Europe.

Singapore’s VLSFO-equivalent LNG price has also climbed by $12/mt in the past week. “The rise can be attributed to updated forecasts of colder weather in Japan and higher gas prices in Europe,” Rystad Energy said.

By Konica Bhatt

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