Fuel Switch Snapshot: Rotterdam biofuels slide as other fuels climb

B30-VLSFO flips to $27/mt discount to VLSFO

Rotterdam's B100 now $45/mt cheaper than VLSFO

Singapore's B100 swings to $8/mt premium over LNG (diesel SS)

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific content to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market over the past week.

B30-VLSFO has flipped from a $58/mt premium over VLSFO to a $27/mt discount in Rotterdam, and B100 has swung from a $32/mt premium to a $45/mt discount, as both biofuels have fallen over the past week while VLSFO has gained $33/mt.

B100's discount to LSMGO in Rotterdam has widened by $156/mt to $594/mt, and its premium over HSFO has narrowed by $107/mt to $55/mt. Its discount to B30-VLSFO has narrowed by $10/mt to $17/mt.

B30-LSMGO's discount to LSMGO in Rotterdam has widened by $37/mt to $65/mt.

In Singapore, where every grade has gained, B100's premium over VLSFO has narrowed by $18/mt to $266/mt and its discount to LSMGO has widened by $34/mt to $61/mt.

B100's pooling value has fallen by $1/mt for both intra-EU and extra-EU voyages, and the smaller credit has held back a little of the fall in its all-in price. OceanScore's FuelEU pooling index has registered a €0.60/mtCO2e ($0.44/mtCO2e) weekly drop to €118.90/mtCO2e ($138/mtCO2e).

Liquefied biomethane's (LBM) premiums over HSFO in Rotterdam have widened by $12-14/mt to $243-380/mt depending on engine type, and its premiums over VLSFO by $43-45/mt to $143-280/mt. Its discounts to LSMGO have widened by $35-37/mt to $269-406/mt.

LBM's premiums over B100 have widened by $119-121/mt to $188-325/mt depending on engine type, as LBM has gained while B100 has fallen, although the two fuels typically cater to different vessel types and are not directly comparable. LBM's pooling value has fallen by $1-2/mt, adding slightly to the rise in its all-in price.

Rotterdam's LNG premiums over VLSFO have widened by $50-52/mt to $261-395/mt depending on engine type, while its discounts to LSMGO have widened by $28-30/mt to $154-288/mt.

In Singapore, LNG's premiums over VLSFO have narrowed by $33-34/mt to $258-324/mt depending on engine type. Against LSMGO, LNG burnt in Otto medium speed (Otto MS) engines holds a premium that has narrowed by $43/mt to $2/mt. LNG burnt in diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engines sits at a discount to LSMGO that has widened by $49/mt to $69/mt.

Singapore's B100 has flipped from a $7/mt discount to LNG (diesel SS) to an $8/mt premium, as B100 has gained $54/mt over the past week against LNG's $39/mt. Its discount to LNG (Otto MS) has narrowed by $14/mt to $58/mt, though again the two are not directly comparable.

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam's conventional prices have gained $33-113/mt over the past week, with LSMGO up the most. B100 has fallen by $43/mt.

B30-VLSFO has fallen by $53/mt, while B30-LSMGO has gained $76/mt.

Dutch ZRE A tickets have gained €26.50/mtCO2e ($31/mtCO2e) over the past week to €179/mtCO2e ($208/mtCO2e).

Fuel availability is tight in the ARA for prompt delivery dates, with buyers advised lead times of 5-7 days for HSFO, VLSFO, ULSFO and LSMGO, a trader said.

Singapore's conventional prices have gained $27-88/mt over the past week, with LSMGO up the most. B100 has gained $54/mt and B30-VLSFO $30/mt.

Singapore's VLSFO market has tightened, with lead times now at 9-16 days against 7-19 days a week earlier, which a source put down to thinner supplier availability and a tightness in blending components. HSFO lead times have stretched to 8-16 days from 6-12 days, while LSMGO ranges widely at 2-11 days against 4-9 days.

Front-month ICE Brent futures rallied $6.88/bbl ($51/mt) higher to $98.19/bbl ($720/mt).

Dec26 EUA prices rose by $3.64/mtCO2e to $99.48/mtCO2e.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam's LNG prices have gained $83-85/mt over the past week depending on engine type, and its LBM prices $76-78/mt.

Tightening supply, low storage levels and stronger-than-expected demand have all pushed European gas prices up, alongside renewed geopolitical tension, IEA gas analyst Greg Molnár said.

Unplanned outages at Norway's Kollsnes plant and the Troll field, warmer near-term forecasts and slower European storage injections have also lent support, JOGMEC said. EU underground storage was 66% full, up from 64% a week earlier but 16% below where it stood a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

LBM's discounts to LNG in Rotterdam have widened by $7/mt to $114-118/mt depending on engine type.

Singapore's LNG prices have gained $39-40/mt depending on engine type.

A geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East has continued to support the front-month JKM contract, and supply concerns lifted it earlier in the week as US cargoes lost their arbitrage to Asia and buyers in Europe and Asia competed harder for volumes ahead of winter, JOGMEC said.

By Erik Hoffmann

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