Hydrogen should make up 15% of energy mix to meet Paris Agreement - DNV
Hydrogen uptake needs to triple to 15% of global energy demand by mid-century to reach the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, says DNV.
CHART: DNV study suggests the bulk of hydrogen will be consumed in the regions it is produced in, while ammonia has greater potential for seaborne transport to other regions. DNV
But as things stand now, hydrogen is only forecast to make up 0.50% of the energy mix by 2030, and 5% by 2050, shipping classification society DNV forecasts.
“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” DNV’s group president and chief Remi Eriksen said today at DNV’s Hydrogen Future conference.
Carbon capturing and storage are critical elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen, he added.
The classification society claims that blue hydrogen produced from natural gas with emissions captured will play a major short-term role, especially in Europe where it predicts hydrogen will make up an above-average 11% of the energy mix by 2050.
Blue hydrogen is needed to scale hydrogen infrastructure and can complement green hydrogen in the future, said Equinor Low Carbon Solutions’ project manager Ulrik Olbjørn. German authorities have found both blue and green hydrogen necessary in short term, he added.
Olbjørn argues that a major concern for hydrogen investment is lack of demand, so off-takers need to commit to contracts running for at least 10-15 years to make investments in hydrogen lucrative.
To save costs, existing infrastructure can be used for hydrogen, suggested Uniper Market Analytics’ executive vice president Gregor Pett. Uniper is planning to use decommissioned gas storage sites in Germany for storing hydrogen, he added.
Both Olbjørn and Pett think hydrogen will largely be moved between countries through pipelines as shipping it by sea is prohibitively expensive.
A DNV study has similarly found hydrogen transport through pipelines to be an inexpensive and robust method for distances up to 2,000 km. Transporting hydrogen on vessels, however, is expensive and complicated partly because it needs to be regasified from its cryogenic liquid form at the receiving destination.
It goes on to highlight ammonia as a convenient hydrogen carrier that is easier and more cost-effective to ship. Hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol will play key roles in decarbonising the shipping sector, said DNV.
“We expect our first ammonia-powered engine to roll out by 2024,” said MAN Energy Solutions Two Stroke Business head Bjarne Foldager.
