IEA cuts global oil demand growth forecast marginally
The Paris-based energy agency has trimmed its forecast and now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.05 million b/d to 104 million b/d this year.
PHOTO: Black oil drum barrels. Getty Images
Oil demand has surged during the winter heating season in December and through January, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
“Average heating degree days were significantly higher than a year ago and slightly above the five-year average, boosting oil demand,” it added.
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed nations found some support as freezing temperatures swept across large parts of the northern hemisphere, including the US and much of Europe.
Meanwhile, oil demand trends in non-OECD economies “were mixed,” the IEA said. While oil demand growth in China showed some signs of improvement, “the latest data for Saudi Arabia, Brazil and India were all below expectations,” the Paris-based agency noted.
Supply forecast
Global oil supply rose by 20,000 b/d in November to 103.5 million b/d in December 2024, primarily due to increased output from African OPEC+ nations, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Total oil supply is on track to increase by 1.8 million b/d in 2025, to 104.7 million b/d, the IEA said.
Although OPEC+ decided to delay its planned output increase by three more months through to March this year, non-OPEC producers including the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina, will boost supply by about 1.5 million b/d in 2025, the IEA estimates.
“OPEC+ members have also been looking to unwind extra voluntary production cuts and could ramp up if needed. Those additions should cover both potential supply disruptions and expected demand growth,” the IEA said.
The latest round of US sanctions against Russia’s energy sector may affect oil supply flows, the energy agency estimates. Washington targeted two major Russian oil producers this time, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as over 160 tankers carrying Russian oil for Iran and Venezuela and ship insurance providers, further complicating global oil trade.
Moreover, there are speculations that the incoming Trump administration will take a stricter stance on Iran's oil exports, “compounding the impact of US Treasury sanctions on Tehran,” the IEA said. “While it is too early to fully quantify the potential impact from these new measures, some operators have reportedly already started to pull back from Iranian and Russian oil,” it added.
By Aparupa Mazumder
Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online
