IEA keeps global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.2 million b/d for 2024

The Paris-based energy agency expects global oil demand growth to decline from 2.3 million b/d in 2023 to 1.2 million b/d in 2024 as oil consumption growth declines in China.

PHOTO: An oil pump jack. Getty Images

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million b/d in 2024, unchanged from its previous monthly Oil Market Report (OMR). Global oil demand growth this year is expected to be lower than 2.3 million b/d growth in 2023.

Despite this overall decline, the IEA still projects that China, India and Brazil will spearhead oil demand growth in 2024. These three countries will account for 78% of global oil demand growth this year.

The IEA expects global oil supply to grow by 1.7 million b/d to a record high of 103.8 million b/d in 2024, with non-OPEC countries including the US, Guyana and Canada leading the production.

Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East has put upward pressure on ICE Brent futures, the IEA notes. The agency warns that if there are disruptions to global oil flow through critical passages in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait due to further attacks, the price gains in the oil market are likely to persist.

According to the IEA, robust non-OPEC supply will cause a “slight build” in global inventories in the first quarter of this year, despite fresh production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

The IEA expects this extra inventory build to “leave OPEC+ pumping above requirements for its crude oil if extra voluntary cuts are unwound in the second quarter.”

The agency anticipates global refinery crude throughputs to average 83.3 million b/d in 2024, unchanged from the previous month’s projection.

By Aparupa Mazumder 

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