IEA nudges up oil demand estimates

Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects global oil demand to grow by 740,000 b/d in 2025, about 100,000 b/d higher than its previous estimate.

IMAGE: Crude oil barrel. Getty Images

Emerging economies like India will remain the main drivers of oil demand in this year and 2026. However, growth in demand will be relatively slower than previously expected, the energy agency noted.

Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter of 2025 as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use, the IEA said.

Oil demand is expected to rise at a slower rate of 760,000 b/d in 2026, the IEA estimated. 

“Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and, by extension, oil demand,” the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).

Supply forecast

Global oil supply is projected to rise by an average of 1.6 million b/d to 104.6 million b/d in 2025 and another 970,000 b/d in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers will likely add 1.3 million b/d of crude oil this year and about 820,000 b/d in 2026.

OPEC+ will reportedly hike output by 411,000 b/d in June for the second consecutive month, “effectively advancing the bloc’s production to levels it had previously scheduled for October 2025,” the IEA notes.

Based on the latest plans, the Saudi Arabia-led oil producers’ group is set to pump an additional 310,000 b/d of extra supply this year and 150,000 b/d in 2026, the IEA estimated.

“A further tightening of sanctions enforcement on Venezuela, Iran and Russia may yet offset some of those increases,” it said.

By Aparupa Mazumder

Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online