IEA projects OPEC output to grow by 1 million b/d in 2030
The total crude oil production of the oil-producers group will increase by a modest 1 million b/d by 2030 as a result of a production decline of 1.5 million b/d from OPEC's African member states, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated in its recent World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2023.
PHOTO: An oil pumpjack. Getty Images
The Paris-based agency projected that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia will maintain a collective global oil supply share between 45% to 48% by 2030.
The IEA expects the share to rise above 50% by 2050 as OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia expands production levels.
The IEA anticipates that the easing of oil sanctions on OPEC member states such as Iran and Venezuela will be eventually facilitated by improvement in international circumstances. These developments will lead to a modest growth in the total output of the oil-producers group in the coming years, the IEA added.
Asia’s emerging oil markets and developing economies currently make up slightly more than 40% of the world’s total crude oil imports. Due to strong demand growth projections and limited domestic production capabilities, the IEA projects this share to increase to a range between 45% to 60% by 2050.
The Middle East will remain a leading exporter of crude oil, the IEA said, while Russia’s export quotas in the market will continue to decline, the energy market watchdog further projected.
Growing global agitation
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to “some shortfalls” in global crude supply, “but immediate issues have now receded because Russian oil production and export have been more resilient than initially anticipated and because a wave of new supply projects,” the IEA stated.
Production in Russia is expected to decline by 3.5 million b/d between 2022 and 2050 due to the struggles the country will face in maintaining output from existing oil fields or developing new ones.
Moreover, the oil market has grown impeccably volatile in the past year due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is now accompanied by the risk of supply disruption due to rising tension in the Middle East, the IEA said.
“Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, instability in the Middle East could lead to further disruption to energy markets and prices,” the energy agency said.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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