IEA raises global oil demand growth forecast
Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects global oil demand to grow by 790,000 b/d in 2025, about 90,000 b/d higher than its previous estimate.
IMAGE: Oil storage tanks. Getty Images
The IEA expects global oil demand to rise by about 770,000 b/d next year – about 70,000 b/d higher than its last month’s projection.
Global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 will be driven primarily by the US, China and Nigeria, according to the IEA. The petrochemical sector is expected to “remain the bedrock” of oil demand growth, it said.
Even so, the agency expects consumption growth to slow in the fourth quarter of this year compared with the third.
Meanwhile, the projected global oil demand is expected to remain well below oil production levels, the IEA said.
“Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the energy agency added.
Supply forecast
In October, global oil supply decreased by 440,000 b/d to 108.2 million b/d, as a “raft of planned field maintenance and unscheduled outages curbed output,” the IEA noted in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
The energy agency now projects global oil supply to grow by 3.1 million b/d to average 106.3 million b/d in 2025 and rise by about 2.5 million b/d to average 108.7 million b/d in 2026.
“This year’s increase is almost evenly divided between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers,” the IEA said.
Notably, OPEC’s de-factor leader Saudi Arabia boosted supply by close to 1.5 million b/d from January through October, according to the IEA.
By contrast, Russian production is up by only 120,000 b/d between January and October, with growth curbed by Western sanctions and a challenging operating environment, the IEA said.
Earlier this month, eight members of the OPEC alliance raised their December output targets by 137,000 b/d, to unwind the second tranche of supply cuts – 1.65 million b/d reduction announced in April 2023.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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