IEA raises, OPEC trims global oil demand forecasts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil demand forecast for this year by 380,000 b/d to 2.1 million b/d.

The revision has lent some support to ICE Brent crude today, which has traded up by around $1.50/bbl since yesterday's settlement.

The IEA expects widespread switching from gas to oil and more oil going to power generation. It pegs global oil demand at 99.7 million b/d for this year, and further growth to 101.8 million b/d next year.

OPEC, on the other hand, has revised global oil demand lower for the second half of the year, citing more rounds of Covid-19 restrictions and geopolitical tensions. It forecasts oil demand to grow by a 3.1 million b/d this year – higher than the IEA – but said the bulk of this growth happened in the second half of the year.

Global oil demand will average around 100 million b/d this year, and rise to 102.7 million b/d next year, according to OPEC.