IEA sees a marginal rise in global oil demand growth in 2024
The Paris-based energy agency expects global oil demand to grow by 970,000 b/d this year, about 100,000 b/d higher than its previous month’s projection.
PHOTO: Oil barrels stacked together. Getty Images
In comparison to last year's growth of 2.30 million b/d, the global oil demand this year is still growing at a slower rate.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees oil demand growth to be around 980,000 b/d in 2025. This decline can be largely attributed to “subpar economic growth, greater efficiencies, and vehicle electrification,” the energy agency said.
Global oil demand growth in 2024 also faces headwinds from declining oil consumption in China, the IEA said. The country’s oil consumption contracted in April and May as its “post-pandemic rebound has run its course,” the energy agency said.
Besides, demand growth has also been impacted by lower consumption of industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstocks this year, the IEA said.
The oil producer group OPEC and the IEA have very different growth projections for this year and 2025. According to OPEC's latest report, global oil demand is projected to grow by a steeper 2.20 million b/d this year and 1.80 million b/d in 2025.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ crude consumption is estimated to decline this year to 41.1 million b/d as demand growth continues to recede and non-OPEC+ output expands, the energy agency estimated in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Supply forecast
Global oil supply gained 150,000 b/d in June to 102.9 million b/d, the IEA estimated. For the entire year, the agency expects global oil output to grow by 770,000 b/d to 103 million b/d, mainly driven by leading non-OPEC producers including the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.
OPEC+ supply is projected to fall by 740,000 b/d, provided existing supply cuts are maintained in the third quarter of this year.
“Given the bloc’s [OPEC’s] assurances that the production increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, we will adjust our OPEC+ supply numbers when such a decision is confirmed,” the IEA said.
In 2025, global oil supply is forecast to gain 1.80 million b/d, consistent with the previous month’s projection.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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