IEA trims global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million b/d for 2024
The Paris-based energy agency expects global oil demand growth to drastically decline from 2.3 million b/d in 2023 to 1.1 million b/d this year, 140,000 b/d lower than its last month’s projection.
PHOTO: Oil barrels. Getty Images
The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees oil demand growth to be around 1.2 million b/d in 2025. The forecast further widens the gap between the IEA and global oil producer group OPEC regarding its demand outlooks for this year and 2025. OPEC, in its latest monthly report, projected global oil demand growth at 2.25 million b/d for this year and 1.85 million b/d for 2025.
The IEA expects demand for OPEC+ crude in the second half of this year to be around 42 million b/d – roughly 700,000 b/d above the group’s April output.
“The health of global oil demand will likely be a key topic for discussion when OPEC+ ministers meet in Vienna on 1 June to chart production policy for the remainder of the year,” the energy agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Supply forecast
The IEA expects global oil output to grow by 580,000 b/d to 102.7 million b/d in 2024, with non-OPEC countries including the US, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada leading the production.
OPEC+ supply is projected to fall by 840,000 b/d, provided supply cuts continue through the second half of this year.
“Even if OPEC+ voluntary production cuts were to stay in place, global oil supply [in 2025] could jump by 1.8 million b/d compared with this year’s more modest 580,000 b/d annual [2024] increase,” the IEA projected.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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