Iran war: Regional conflict sees no signs of de-escalation

A persistent lack of resolution in the Middle East conflict has kept Brent crude’s price well above the $105/bbl mark.

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A fire broke out onboard the Panama-flagged MT El Gaia on Sunday after it came under an attack off the coast of Oman.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs condemned the attack on the commercial vessel, which left one seafarer missing.

While no party has formally claimed responsibility for the strike, Washington and Tehran have traded conflicting accounts regarding the cause of the incident.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the tanker had struck a naval mine in the strait.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) rejected that claim, stating on social media platform X that the vessel was rendered inoperable by an Iranian missile in August and subsequently hit by another Iranian drone “while the ship sat in waters of the coast of Oman.”

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Washington could stay in Iran and “keep the oil,” comparing the ongoing situation in the Middle East to Venezuela and saying oil sales there had “paid for the war many times,” Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, Iran and Oman called off yesterday’s planned meeting to discuss favourable ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.

As of Sunday, only 13 vessels attempted to transit the strait – 10 inbound, seven outbound – market intelligence provider Windward reported. Of this, two vessels moved in dark mode, the data showed.

Although Sunday’s transit volume is higher than the crossings noted last week, vessel traffic remains well below the pre-war average of 140 daily transits.

Houthis escalate conflict with Riyadh

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants have escalated the regional conflict by targeting military facilities and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, the group’s spokesperson Yahya Sare’e said on social media platform Telegram.

“Dozens of ballistic missiles and drones were used,” Sare’e said, adding that the militant group will continue its offensive “deep inside” Saudi Arabia.

The latest escalation comes on the heels of the 1,200 km East-West Pipeline shutting down, following a targeted strike by the Houthis last week.

Riyadh is highly dependent on the pipeline, funnelling about 70% of its crude exports through the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation worsened in recent months, after the Houthi militants announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, dragging the US-Iran conflict directly to the Red Sea gateway.

Notably, the Houthis gained control of the Yemeni port city of Mocha last week, advancing down the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported citing sources.

As of 11 September, 466 Saudi-flagged vessels were active in the Red Sea – 461 of them were operating exclusively inside Saudi territorial waters – with the remaining five inside Egyptian waters, Windward reported.

“The shift is assessed as an indicator that Saudi-flagged shipping is seeking safe haven within national waters in response to the recent escalation in the Red Sea,” Windward said.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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