MEPC 80: Revised strategy is positive despite being not aligned with 1.5°C pathway - UMAS

The 2023 IMO GHG strategy that intends to achieve net zero emissions by or around 2050 “falls short of being clearly aligned to a 1.5°C pathway,” but sends “a strong signal to the shipping sector,” Dr Alison Shaw from UMAS tells ENGINE.

PHOTO: Opening of the 80th Session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) at IMO HQ this week. IMO

Shaw says that the revised strategy “is a very good basis to go forward” as it sets a clear date of “as close to 2050” and indicative 2030 and 2040 checkpoints that clearly represent IMO’s expectations about reductions.

Dr Alison Shaw is a research fellow at University College London (UCL) and policy lead at UMAS.

Positives to take from the revised IMO GHG strategy

She believes the revised strategy will spur big shipping companies to order more ships that can run on low- and zero emission fuels and this is one “one of the main things that the strategy had to do.”

The IMO’s adoption of guidelines on the lifecycle GHG intensity of marine fuels is a “big win” as it sends “the right signals that only certain types of fuels should be part of the transition,” Shaw adds.

“The language on just and equitable transition” is another positive as the IMO looks to develop measures to ensure it.

She also mentioned “unity around” a goal-based marine fuel standard to regulate the phased reduction of the marine fuels' GHG intensity.

Not so bright side, but all hope is not lost

The IMO has set interim GHG reduction targets (also called “indicative checkpoints”) of:

• GHG reduction target of at least 20%, striving for 30%, by 2030, compared to 2008
• GHG reduction target of at least 70%, striving for 80% by 2040, compared to 2008

Shaw's main concern is that these interim targets are to small to align with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, she believes this was probably the highest ambition strategy that could have come out of the multilateral process.

The 1.5°C target is still not out of reach, but it is going to take a lot of effort from the maritime sector, she says. And regulators will have to replace the checkpoint targets with more ambitious targets when the IMO's GHG strategy is up for revision in 2028.

Shaw maintains that “overall it’s a very positive document” with the only downside being the ambiguity regarding the 1.5°C degree pathway.

“The strength of the strategy now relies on both the sector's response and the forthcoming development of global measures by Member States, both of which should be geared to striving for 30% GHG emissions reduction by 2030,” she concludes.

By Tuhin Roy

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