Oil demand growth forecast broadly unchanged at 2.2 million b/d for 2024 – OPEC

Brent futures gained on the month, as money managers “turned increasingly bullish about oil,” OPEC said in its latest report.

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In its April monthly oil market report (MOMR), the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged – at 2.2 million b/d this year.

Non-OECD countries are expected to account for a major share of oil demand growth in 2024. Their combined oil demand is expected to increase by about 2.1 million b/d to reach 58.4 million b/d in 2024, driven by demand growth in India, China, the Middle East, and other Asian countries.

Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to reach 46 million b/d in 2024, OPEC said. The upcoming driving season in the US is expected to add to the demand growth, it added. “OECD Americas is forecast to lead demand growth in the region,” the group said.

Total global oil demand is expected to reach 104.5 million b/d this year, unchanged from OPEC's previous month's assessment. The growth will be bolstered by air travel demand and “healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking,” the group said.

The oil-producers group maintained its global oil demand growth projection of 1.8 million b/d in 2025, to reach 106.3 million b/d.

OPEC expects demand for its crude to be at 28.5 million b/d this year – 1.2 million b/d higher than its estimated level for last year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 29 million b/d, an increase of about 400,000 b/d over the 2024 forecast level, it said in its flagship report.

Supply projections

The oil-producers group expects non-OPEC liquid supply to grow by 1 million b/d this year, about 100,000 b/d lower than its previous assessment.

OPEC expects the US, Canada, Brazil, and Norway to be the main drivers for liquid supply growth in 2024.

The core 12 OPEC member countries produced 26.6 million b/d of crude oil in March, unchanged from the previous month. “Crude oil output increased mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gabon, and Kuwait, while production in Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela decreased,” it said in its report.

By Aparupa Mazumder 

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