OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast to 1.9 million b/d for 2024
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its world oil demand growth forecast to 1.9 million b/d, with total consumption averaging 104.1 million b/d in 2024, about 106,000 b/d lower than its previous month's projection.
PHOTO: Oil barrels and pump jacks. Getty Images
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to be around 100,000 b/d to reach 45.7 million b/d this year, “with OECD Americas accounting for the bulk of oil demand growth,” the oil-producers body said in its latest monthly oil market report (MOMR).
Demand growth in the non-OECD countries is projected to be around 1.8 million b/d to reach about 58.4 million b/d in 2024, the coalition said. The growth will be driven mostly by China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America.
OPEC sees global oil demand growth at 1.6 million b/d in 2025, with total consumption reaching about 105.8 million b/d, noting a small decline of 102,000 b/d from its previous estimate. “Within the regions, the OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, [100,000 b/d year-on-year] while the non-OECD region is projected to drive growth by 1.5 mb/d, y-o-y, [1.5 million b/d year-on-year]” the Saudi Arabia-led group said.
Demand for crude produced by the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is expected to stand at about 42.8 million b/d in 2024, the same as the previous month’s estimates.
Supply estimates
The 12 core OPEC members produced an average of 26.04 million b/d of crude oil in September, about 604,000 b/d lower than August’s production levels. Crude oil output increased in Iran and Kuwait, while production in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia decreased, the Vienna-headquartered group said.
Total production from OPEC members within the DoC decreased by 557,000 b/d in September to 40.10 million b/d, it said. Crude oil production in Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, declined by 155,000 b/d to 4.11 million b/d in September. The country's August output was 267,000 b/d higher than its designated quota of 4 million b/d, according to the OPEC report.
Crude oil output in Libya fell by a massive 410,000 b/d last month to 540,000 b/d, OPEC said. Libya’s oil production was affected by political turmoil since August, due to a dispute over the leadership of its central bank, the only globally acknowledged depository of its oil revenues.
Meanwhile, crude oil production from non-OPEC countries which include members of the OPEC+ alliance or participants in the DoC, increased by 47,000 b/d to 14.06 million b/d in September.
Crude oil output primarily increased in Kazakhstan and declined marginally in Russia, OPEC said. Russia, a non-OPEC DoC country, produced 9 million b/d of crude in September, about 28,000 b/d lower than production in the previous month, according to the report.
The DoC comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group, also commonly known as OPEC+.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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