OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast to 2.03 million b/d for 2024

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its world oil demand growth forecast to 2.03 million b/d, with total consumption reaching 104.2 million b/d in 2024, about 80,000 b/d lower than its previous month's assessment.

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Oil demand growth in the non-OECD countries is expected to be around 1.8 million b/d to reach about 58.5 million b/d in 2024, the oil-producers body said in its latest monthly oil market report (MOMR). The growth will be “driven mostly by China with support from India, the Middle East, and Latin America.”

Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to reach 45.7 million b/d this year, it said.

OPEC sees global oil demand growth at 1.7 million b/d in 2025, with total consumption reaching 105.9 million b/d, noting a small decline of 12,000 b/d from its previous estimate. “Demand in the OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d [100,000 b/d in 2025], y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.6 mb/d [1.6 million b/d in 2025],” it said.

Demand for crude produced by the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is now expected to stand at about 42.8 million b/d in 2024, down by 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s estimates, the Vienna-headquartered group said.

Supply projections

The 12 core OPEC members produced an average of 26.59 million b/d of crude oil in August, about 197,000 b/d lower than July’s production levels. “Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria, Congo, and Venezuela, while production in Libya, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia decreased,” OPEC said.

Total production from OPEC members within the DoC decreased by 300,000 b/d in August to 40.66 million b/d, it said. Crude oil production in Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, declined by 50,000 b/d to 4.22 million b/d in August. The country's July output was 278,000 b/d higher than its designated quota of 4 million b/d, according to the OPEC report.

Meanwhile, crude oil production from non-OPEC countries which include members of the OPEC+ alliance or participants in the DoC, fell by 108,000 b/d to 14.07 million b/d in August.

Crude oil output primarily decreased in Kazakhstan and Russia, OPEC said. Russia, a non-OPEC DoC country, produced 9.05 million b/d of crude in August, about 29,000 b/d lower than production in the previous month, according to the report.

The DoC comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group, also commonly known as OPEC+.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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