OPEC denounces IEA's 2030 peak oil demand prediction as 'dangerous'

OPEC’s secretary general Haitham Al Ghais has once again slammed the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast that global oil demand will peak before 2030.

PHOTO: Getty Images

Peak oil demand is “not on the horizon,” Al Ghais said in a column for the EA Forum, which came just a day after the IEA's annual oil market report for 2024 was published.

In the IEA report that came out on Wednesday, the Paris-based energy agency projected a massive slowdown in oil demand growth over the coming years, with an anticipated peak by 2029. The IEA mentioned that the transition to clean energy will accelerate, which may contribute to a lower demand for fossil fuels. Additionally, the report indicated that rising oil production levels could lead to a notable oversupply situation throughout this decade

“This narrative was repeated only yesterday when the IEA published its Oil 2024 report in which it once again stated that oil demand would peak before 2030,” Al Ghais said. He called the IEA's prediction a “dangerous commentary” for global consumers and could lead to energy volatility on an “unprecedented scale.”

“Of course, we all want to lower emissions, but at the same time, we all need ample, reliable, and affordable supplies of energy. The two cannot be decoupled,” Al Ghais said.

The IEA stated in its latest short-term oil market report (OMR) that it expects global oil demand growth to drop significantly from 2.3 million b/d in 2023 to 960,000 b/d this year, about 100,000 b/d lower than its last month’s projection.

The IEA sees oil demand growth to be around 1 million b/d in 2025.

The forecast reveals a huge disparity between the demand outlooks of the IEA and the oil producer group OPEC for both this year and 2025. According to OPEC's latest report, global oil demand is projected to grow by 2.2 million b/d this year and 1.8 million b/d in 2025.

“This [IEA’s projection] is an unrealistic scenario, one that would negatively impact economies across the world,” Al Ghais said. “It is simply a continuation of the IEA’s anti-oil narrative. Given the real trends we see today, we do not see peak oil demand by the end of the decade,” the top OPEC official added.

By Aparupa Mazumder 

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