OPEC keeps oil demand growth outlook unchanged

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 at 1.4 million b/d.

IMAGE: OPEC's logo. Getty Images

OPEC has left its global oil demand forecast unchanged at 106.52 million b/d for the year, including about 46.09 million b/d from OECD economies – both figures mirroring last month’s estimates.

OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 60.43 million b/d this year, also unchanged from its December projection. Most of this growth is expected to come from China, India, the Middle East, and other Asian countries.

Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by about 1.3 million b/d, to average 107.9 million b/d.

OPEC has maintained demand forecast for its crude at 43 million b/d for 2026. It expects demand for its crude to grow by 600,000 b/d to reach 43.6 million b/d next year.

Supply estimates

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 42.8 million b/d last month, about 238,000 b/d lower than in November.

Oil production by OPEC+’s de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, increased by 27,000 b/d in December to about 10.08 million b/d. The group’s second-largest producer Iraq increased production by 55,000 b/d to 4.1 million b/d during the same time.

In December, oil production in Venezuela, Russia and Kazakhstan fell by 60,000 b/d, 73,000 b/d and 237,000 b/d to about 896,000 b/d, 9.3 million b/d and 1.5 million b/d respectively, OPEC said.

The Vienna-headquartered coalition has hiked its non-OPEC production growth forecast by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year.

The OPEC+ coalition comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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