OPEC maintains global oil demand and supply growth projections

Global oil demand is projected to increase by 2.3 million b/d this year to 101.9 million b/d, according to OPEC's latest oil market report. The demand forecast remains unchanged from its February forecast.

PHOTO: OPEC logo. Getty Images

OPEC has revised oil demand growth in OECD countries down by 200,000 b/d to 200,000 b/d, now expecting a more severe economic slowdown in the US and Europe. However, non-OECD demand growth is revised upwards by 100,000 b/d from February, to 2.1 million b/d. This growth is attributed to an expected demand pick-up in China.

Demand is expected to average 46.23 million b/d in OECD countries and 55.67 million b/d in non-OECD countries. It predicts China alone will consume 15.40 million b/d of oil in the second quarter of this year.

Supply projections

Crude production in the core OPEC group averaged 28.92 million b/d in February - an increase of 117,000 b/d on the month. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iran are expected to report production increases in February, while Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Angola are expected to report declines.

Non-OPEC liquid fuel production is projected to grow by 1.4 million b/d this year to average 67 million b/d. This forecast remains unchanged from its February report.

A preliminary estimate of Russia's crude production in February shows "stable" monthly output at an average of 9.8 million b/d.

Russian liquid fuel production is forecast to drop by 700,000 b/d to average 10.3 million b/d this year. That is an upward revision of 200,000 b/d from its February forecast, and attributed to “higher-than-expected” oil production in the first quarter of this year.

OPEC still forecasts US crude oil output to increase by 720,000 b/d compared to 2022, and average 12.6 million b/d this year.

By Konica Bhatt

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