OPEC maintains global oil demand growth forecast at 2.2 million b/d for 2024
The market structures of oil [Brent] futures prices have strengthened, and money managers have “turned more bullish” on oil, OPEC said in its latest report.
PHOTO: OPEC headquarters in Vienna. Getty Images
In its March monthly oil market report (MOMR), the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 2.2 million b/d for this year.
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to reach 46 million b/d in 2024, demand growth will decline during this time due to expected lower performance in the manufacturing and petrochemical sectors of Japan and South Korea, OPEC said. “However, this is offset by upward adjustments for India and Other Asia, reflecting anticipated improvements during the same period,” it added.
Non-OECD countries oil demand is expected to increase by about 2 million b/d to reach 58.3 million b/d in 2024, driven by demand growth in China, India, the Middle East, and other Asian countries.
Total global oil demand is expected to reach 104.5 million b/d this year, 1 million b/d higher than OPEC's previous month assessment. The growth will be supported by “strong air travel demand and increased road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities.”
The oil-producers group projects global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.8 million b/d, to reach 106.2 million b/d.
OPEC expects demand for its crude to be at 28.5 million b/d this year – 1 million b/d higher than last month’s assessment. Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 28.8 million b/d, an increase of about 300,000 b/d over the 2024 forecast level, it said in its flagship report.
Meanwhile, the coalition slightly revised up its forecast for world economic growth at 2.8% for this year and 2.9% for 2025. “India’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 6.6% for 2024 and 6.3% in 2025,” it said.
Supply projections
The oil-producers group expects non-OPEC liquid fuel production to grow by 1.1 million b/d this year, about 100,000 b/d lower than its previous assessment.
OPEC expects the US, Canada, Brazil, and Norway to be the main drivers for liquid supply growth in 2024. It projects oil output to decline by the most in Russia and Mexico this year.
“Several planned and unplanned oil supply outages along with geopolitical developments in some producing regions raised concerns about global oil supply outlooks,” it said.
The core 12 OPEC member countries produced 26.6 million b/d of crude oil in February, marking an increase of 203,000 b/d month-on-month.
“OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by around 64,000 b/d to average 5.5 million b/d this year, followed by a growth of 110,000 b/d to average 5.6 million b/d in 2025,” it said in its report.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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