OPEC maintains global oil demand growth forecast at 2.5 million b/d in 2023
The Vienna-headquartered group has kept its global oil demand outlook for 2023 and 2024 unchanged from its previous month’s projections.
PHOTO: Flags of OPEC member countries. Getty Images
In its flagship monthly oil market report (MOMR), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects that global oil demand will grow by 2.5 million b/d in 2023 and 2.2 million b/d in 2024.
Oil demand in the OECD region is expected to grow by 300,000 b/d to reach 46.1 million b/d in 2024, with OECD Americas contributing the most. The non-OECD demand is expected to increase by about 2 million b/d to reach 58.3 million b/d in 2024, driven by rising demand in China, India, the Middle East, and other Asian regions.
Total world oil demand is forecast to average 104.4 million b/d in 2024, according to the group. “Oil demand is expected to be supported by resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China,” OPEC said.
The oil-producer body has also kept its demand forecast for OPEC crude in 2024 at 29.9 million b/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. Demand for OPEC crude in 2024 will be 800,000 b/d higher than the estimated level in 2023, the group said in its December MOMR.
Meanwhile, OPEC attributes recent crude oil price volatility to reduced bullish positions by hedge funds and money managers, exerting downward pressure on Brent futures.
Supply projections
The group expects non-OPEC liquid fuels supply to grow by 1.4 million b/d in 2024, broadly unchanged from its previous assessment. “The main drivers for liquids supply growth next year are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan.”
OPEC further said it anticipates “large declines” in liquid fuels supply in Mexico and Malaysia in 2024.
The core 13 OPEC member countries produced 27.84 million b/d of crude oil in November, marking a decline of 57,000 b/d from the previous month.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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