OPEC maintains global oil demand growth forecast for second straight month
The global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 million b/d this year to 101.8 million b/d, OPEC's monthly oil market report indicates. This is unchanged from its previous forecast in December.
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OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for this year, expecting global economic improvements and Covid-19 containment in China to support growth.
This demand growth is split between 300,000 b/d to average 46.5 million b/d in OECD countries and 1.9 million b/d to average 55.3 million b/d in non-OECD countries.
World oil demand is expected to rise by 1.7 million b/d in the first quarter of this year.
This year, the demand forecast for OPEC crude remains unchanged at 29.2 million b/d, 600,000 b/d higher than its total demand last year.
Supply projections
OPEC has kept its forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply for this year unchanged compared to its previous assessment. Supply is estimated to grow by 1.5 million b/d this year to average 67.2 million b/d, unchanged from its December 2022 projection.
OPEC’s crude oil production averaged 28.97 million b/d in December, up 91,000 b/d on the month, the report says. Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria, while production declined across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Algeria and remained unchanged in Kuwait.
This year, the forecast remains unchanged from its previous assessment, as it expects Russian liquid fuel output to decline by 850,000 b/d to 10.1 million b/d amid "high uncertainty.”
OPEC forecasts US liquid oil production to grow by 1.2 million b/d on the year to 20.2 million b/d this year - the same as last month – with crude oil output forecast to rise by 800,000 b/d to average 12.7 million b/d.
“Greater drilling activity and fewer supply chain and logistical issues in the prolific Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken shale sites [in the US] are assumed for 2023,” says the report.
By Konica Bhatt
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