OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million b/d for 2025

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its world oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million b/d for 2025 and 2026.

PHOTO: Oil barrels. Getty Images

Global oil consumption in 2025 is expected to average 105.2 million b/d, OPEC said. 45.8 million b/d will be in OECD countries, which are expected to consume 100,000 b/d more than last year.

Demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected to be much greater at around 1.3 million b/d to reach 59.3 million b/d in 2025, the coalition said, “mostly driven by requirements from China, supported by Other Asia, India, the Middle East and Latin America.”

“This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026,” OPEC said. “The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y [100,000 b/d year-on-year], while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d [1.3 million b/d],” the Saudi Arabia-led group said.

Demand for crude produced by OPEC+ countries is revised down by 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.5 million b/d in 2025 and at around 42.7 million b/d in 2026.

Supply estimates

The 12 core OPEC members produced an average of 26.74 million b/d of crude oil in December, about 8,000 b/d higher than November 2024’s production levels. Crude oil output mainly increased in Libya, Nigeria and the Congo, while production in Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE decreased, the Vienna-headquartered group said.

Crude oil output in Libya surged by 53,000 b/d last month to about 1.29 million b/d, OPEC said. The hike in Libya’s oil production added extra barrels to the group's production in December.

Crude oil production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two of the largest producers of the group, declined by 23,000 b/d to 8.9 million b/d and 22,000 b/d to 4.01 million b/d, respectively, in December. Iraq’s output in December was slightly higher than its designated quota of 4 million b/d, according to the OPEC report.

Crude oil output primarily increased in Mexico and Malaysia, OPEC said. Russia produced 8.9 million b/d of crude in December, down by about 6,000 b/d from the previous month, according to the report.

Crude oil production by OPEC+ countries decreased by 14,000 b/d in December compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.65 million b/d, OPEC said.

OPEC+ comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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