OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast at 2.4 million b/d in 2023
The Vienna-headquartered group has kept its global oil demand outlook for 2023 and 2024 unchanged from its previous month’s projections.
PHOTO: Oil barrels with OPEC+ member-country flags. Getty Images
In its flagship monthly oil market report (MOMR), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that it sees global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million b/d in 2024.
Non-OECD regions including China, India, the Middle East, and other Asian countries are set to drive next year’s demand growth, OPEC said.
Total world oil demand is forecast to average 102.1 million b/d in 2023 and increase to average 104.3 million b/d in 2024, according to the group. It further expects demand for light distillates to support the growth in oil demand in 2023.
In 2023, oil demand in the OECD region is projected to rise by 89,000 b/d to average 45.8 million b/d. “Demand in OECD Americas is expected to witness the largest regional rise, led by the US, on the back of growing jet fuel demand and expanding gasoline requirements,” the oil-producer group said.
In the non-OECD region, oil demand is expected to grow by 2.3 million b/d to average 56.3 million b/d in 2023, OPEC said. “A steady increase in transportation and industrial fuel demand, supported by a recovery in China’s activity as well as other non-OECD regions, is projected to boost demand in the region in 2023,” the group said.
“In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to further boost oil consumption,” OPEC stated in the MOMR.
Meanwhile, the oil-producer body has cut its demand forecast for OPEC crude in 2023 by 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment to 29.1 million b/d. Demand for OPEC crude is expected to reach 29.9 million b/d in 2024, a decrease of 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment, the group said.
Supply projections:
The group expects the non-OPEC liquid fuels supply to grow by 1.7 million b/d in 2023, an increase of 100,000 b/d from its previous assessment.
“Main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2023 include the US, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, Guyana, and China while largest declines are anticipated in Mexico and Malaysia,” OPEC said.
For 2024, non-OPEC liquid fuel production is expected to increase by 1.4 million b/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment.
The core 13 OPEC member countries produced 27.75 million b/d of crude oil in September, an increase of 273,000 b/d from the previous month.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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