OPEC trims world oil demand growth forecast for 2022, 2023

OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d for this year and 2023 amid mounting concerns over weak economic activity across the world.
PHOTO: Getty Images

It expects global oil demand to increase by 2.5 million b/d this year, down 100,000 b/d from the previous forecast. And sees oil demand to rise by 2.2 million b/d in 2023, also 100,000 b/d lower than its earlier projection.

China's zero-COVID-19 policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and weaker economic activity across the globe will pose challenges for global oil demand growth, the group says in its monthly oil market report.

It sees demand for OPEC crude to average at 28.6 million b/d this year, down 100,000 b/d from the previous estimate.

Meanwhile, it expects demand to grow in OECD and non-OECD countries this year by 1.3 million b/d each. Demand is forecast to rise by 300,000 b/d in OECD regions, and by 1.9 million b/d in non-OECD regions next year, it says.

Within non-OECD regions, China’s oil demand is projected to grow by 300,000 b/d to 15.03 million b/d next year, as “gradual easing of lockdowns will pave the way for a rise in mobility and manufacturing activity,” OPEC says.

Supply projections

The group has cut its forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 by 30,000 b/d to 1.9 million b/d, although production is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d next year.

OPEC’s own production of crude oil decreased by 210,000 b/d on the month, to average 29.49 million b/d in October, the report says.

It expects Russian liquid fuels output to decline by 850,000 b/d in 2023, to 10.1 million b/d from an average of 10.9 million b/d this year amid "considerable uncertainty" in the fourth quarter of 2022.

It sees US liquids production to grow by 1.2 million b/d in 2023, to 20.1 million b/d from 18.9 million b/d in 2022.

By Konica Bhatt

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