Shipping ammonia demand projected to hit 100 million mt by 2040 – Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center
It says that ammonia engine technology and safety regulations will mature by 2027 and pave the way for testing the fuel’s potential in shipping.
PHOTO: Wartsila demonstration of ammonia engine. Wartsila
Currently, the majority of alternative fuels face technical, safety, commercial and regulatory obstacles, making transitioning to them difficult in the next few years, Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping’s head of energy and fuels Torben Nørgaard said at a webinar hosted by the organisation today.
Nørgaard expects the recent International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) carbon intensity indicator (CII) regulation will help implement new energy efficiency technologies for ships at scale. He adds that CII will bring more transparency in shipping emissions as more data will be shared.
From 1 January, the IMO’s Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) regulation will come into force. The regulation mandates shipowners to calculate an Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) for each of their vessels, with a view to grant them a CII rating
Factors such as carbon dioxide emissions per distance traveled against cargo capacity will be used to evaluate EEXI and CII.
By onboarding energy efficiency technologies, the shipping industry can cut 24 million mt of fuel oil consumption by 2030, according to Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center’s recent Maritime Decarbonisation Strategy 2022 report.
Nørgaard has urged shipowners and operators to implement energy efficiency technologies on their vessels right away. These energy efficiency technologies include wind propulsion systems, which can be installed on ships while they are dry-docking for only a few days.
The Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center projects that low-carbon fuels such as e-methane, e-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol will play a significant transitional role to curb shipping emissions before the industry ultimately switches to hydrogen and ammonia.
Around 100 shipping companies operating in the tanker, bulk carrier, container and RoRo/car segments emit around 70% of global maritime emissions, Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center’s chief economist Sara Åhlén Björk says. She thinks that these 100 shipping companies alone have potential to reduce shipping emissions by 40%.
Björk adds that the IMO should also consider a near-term emission target rather than more broadly focusing on the long-term 2050 target.
Green fuel first movers are playing a major role in the initial phase of shipping decarbonisation, Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center’s chief executive Bo Cerup-Simonsen says. He argues that despite a lack of global regulations, these companies are still investing in green fuel technologies, which is encouraging for the industry.
Simonsen adds that cargo owners are beginning to demand zero-emission transportation options, and that this will drive future demand for green fuels.
By Nithin Chandran
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