UMAS study findings on IMO’s revised GHG strategy not Paris-aligned – T&E
The revised greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy targets set by the IMO “still falls short of the needed ambition,” says Transport & Environment’s (T&E) shipping programme director Faig Abbasov.
PHOTO: Smoke trail from a sailing ship. Getty Images
A recent study conducted by the UK-based shipping consultancy University Maritime Advisory Services (UMAS) revealed that the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) revised GHG targets for 2030 and 2040 “correspond to a path between 1.5°C and 1.6°C” and is closely aligned with a pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
These targets are based on the budget defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and align with the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi), claimed UMAS.
T&E has countered UMAS’s claims as it expects the maritime carbon budget to be “exhausted by the end of 2033”. The 12.2-gigatonne carbon budget is set to have binding regulatory measures taking effect from 2027 onwards.
These have not yet been adopted as part of the IMO's revised GHG strategy, but are expected to include binding targets and likely non-compliance penalties. The existing Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) could be accompanied by a new Global Fuel Standard (GFS) and a global carbon price as technical and economic measures to stimulate uptake of low- and zero-carbon fuels.
Abbasov also argues that the SBTi is a “huge gamble”, as it is “based on only 50% probability of attaining the 1.5ºC global temperature target, as opposed to 66.7%.”
The SBTi, a global body encouraging companies and institutions to set emission reduction targets in line with climate science, advocates for two interim targets for shipping on the path to net zero by 2050:
- 37% absolute GHG reduction by 2030
- 96% absolute GHG reduction by 2040
The UMAS analysis is “very problematic”, Abbasov says. It makes “erroneous assumptions that emissions start declining from 2018, as opposed to 2027, which is the entry into force date of new CII, GFS, and Carbon price targets,” he adds.
Moreover, the IMO might “continue exempting smaller vessels and their emissions from its forthcoming measures,” Abbasov says.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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