US crude output to hit record high in 2026 – EIA
US crude oil production is forecast to average 13.8 million b/d in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 13.7 million b/d in 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
IMAGE: Oil pumpjack. Getty Images
US crude oil production averaged 13.7 million b/d in the first half of 2026, 300,000 b/d higher than the same period in 2025, the energy agency said in its September short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.
“Most of this expansion is concentrated in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico and the Federal Gulf of America,” the EIA noted.
Crude oil production in the Permian region is expected to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026 – about 3% higher than in 2025 – driven by higher global crude oil prices amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, the agency said.
It expects four new crude oil production projects to come online by the end of 2026, “further contributing to forecast production growth this year”.
Notably, commercial US crude oil inventories decreased by around 400,000 bbls to 424 million bbls in the week ending 4 September, according to data from the EIA.
US commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have declined by over 48 million bbls over the past 21 weeks, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).
By Aparupa Mazumder
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