US department expects 'near normal' Atlantic hurricane season this year

US' National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center predicts an average Atlantic hurricane season this year, with potentially less hurricane activity than recent years.

PHOTO: NOAA GOES satellite's Hurricane Ian capture before it makes landfall on the barrier island of Cayo Costa in southwest Florida on September 28, 2022. NOAA

NOAA expects around 12 to 17 total named storms originating in the Atlantic Ocean this year, with wind speeds of 39 mph (34 knots) or more. Out of these, five to nine could be hurricanes, leading to one to four major hurricanes with wind speeds ranging more than 111 mph (96 knots) and could be rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has around 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The hurricane season officially starts on 1 June and runs until the end of November, but usually peaks in August and September.

Last September, Hurricane Ian struck the Florida coast, disrupting bunkering and port operations across Miami ports such as Port Everglades and Port of Miami.

The 2022 hurricane season ended as an average season, breaking a six-year streak of above-normal activity. This year, activity could be lower than in recent years due to a high potential for the El Nino phenomenon to develop for the first time in four seasons.

During the El Nino effect, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed towards the west coast of the Americas, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, NOAA says.

However, El Nino’s suppressing effect on the hurricane season could be offset by conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin, NOAA says, leading it to forecast normal hurricane activity.

The NOAA is predicting a 40% chance of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and 30% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency has 70% confidence in its forecasts, which are only for seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and not for landfalls.

The Coast Guard Sector Houston-Galveston said that the Houston-Galveston Captain of the Port (COTP) will review any request from commercial vessels that choose to remain in the port during the storm period. The COTP will provide situational awareness of the vessel at the port and make sure facilities are aware of the vessels during the period.

By Debarati Bhattacharjee

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