Avenir LNG sees '10x growth' in LNG bunker demand by 2033

Global LNG bunker demand is expected to rise to around 5.7 million mt this year, up from 3.8 million mt last year, Avenir LNG says.

PHOTO: Avenir LNG's bunker tanker Avenir Achievement. Avenir LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplier Avenir LNG’s prediction is only slightly above Shell’s projection of global LNG bunker demand at 5 million mt this year.

Avenir LNG forecasts global LNG bunker demand to increase to 8.3 million mt by next year, according to its latest investor update report.

The report remains highly optimistic about the marine sector’s appetite for LNG. It predicts that shipping's LNG consumption will grow to 36.9 million mt/year by 2033, representing around 900% growth over the next decade.

There were 389 LNG-fuelled ships in operation at the start of 2023, almost a tenfold rise over its past decade, Avenir LNG said. According to classification society DNV’s vessel tracker, there are 714 LNG-fuelled vessels currently in operation or on order for delivery by the end of this year. This number is set to grow to 1,016 by 2028, DNV’s database shows.

Demand set to outpace supply capacity

Avenir LNG expects LNG bunker demand to overshoot the LNG bunker capacity from next year.

“Modelling demand scenarios and available vessel supply indicates significant shortage and call on newbuilds from 2025,” the report says.

In a base case scenario, Avenir predicts that the LNG bunker industry will need 31 additional LNG bunker vessels by the end of next year, and another 41 by 2026 to meet shipping's rising LNG bunker demand.

Currently, there are 53 LNG bunker vessels in operation, and another 14 bunker vessels are on order with deliveries scheduled towards 2026, according to DNV's database.

By Konica Bhatt

Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online