East of Suez Fuel Availability Outlook 1 Sep

Bunker demand low across several South Korean ports

Bunker availability improving across Japanese ports

Availability tight across all grades in Fujairah

IMAGE: Toyko bay at sunset. Getty Images

Singapore and Malaysia

Singapore’s VLSFO market has tightened, with lead times now ranging from around 9-16 days, compared with 7-19 days a week earlier. A source attributed the firmer supply situation to reduced availability from suppliers and shortages of blending components.

HSFO availability has also become more constrained, with lead times extending to 8-16 days, from 6-12 days previously. LSMGO lead times, meanwhile, vary widely between 2-11 days, versus 4-9 days a week earlier.

The tightening supply is also reflected in Singapore’s fuel oil inventories. Residual fuel oil stocks have averaged 2% below July levels so far in August, according to the latest data from Enterprise Singapore, with inventories falling below 19 million bbls. Net fuel oil imports have plunged 41% month on month, amid a 1.05 million-bbl decline in imports and a 396,000-bbl rise in exports. Middle distillate inventories have also averaged 5% lower so far this month.

Supply remains constrained at Malaysia’s Port Klang as well. Prompt VLSFO availability is tight, while LSMGO supply remains limited and HSFO continues to face supply pressure.

East Asia

Despite subdued bunker demand, Zhoushan continues to face tight supply. Suppliers are currently advising VLSFO lead times of around ten days, compared with 7-10 days a week earlier. LSMGO and HSFO lead times have similarly lengthened to about ten days from 7-10 days previously.

The persistent constraints are largely a fallout from the two-week suspension of bunkering operations following Typhoon Dolphin, which left suppliers with sizeable delivery backlogs. Availability came under further pressure last week when rough weather linked to four consecutive tropical systems forced another suspension of bunkering at Zhoushan’s inner and outer anchorages, a source said.

Operations resumed on Monday at the more sheltered Xiushandong and inner Mazhi anchorages, following a six-day weather-related suspension. However, suppliers remain uncertain about when bunkering activity across Zhoushan will return to full capacity.

Supply conditions remain uneven across China. In the north, Dalian and Qingdao have adequate VLSFO and LSMGO, although HSFO remains tight in Qingdao. Tianjin is constrained across all three major grades, while Shanghai continues to see limited VLSFO and HSFO availability, with LSMGO supply relatively stable.

Southern China is also facing supply pressure. Fuzhou remains short of VLSFO and LSMGO, while Xiamen has sufficient VLSFO but limited prompt LSMGO. VLSFO and LSMGO availability remains constrained in both, Yangpu and Guangzhou.

In Hong Kong, market conditions are broadly unchanged, with suppliers maintaining lead times of around seven days for all major grades.

Taiwan’s bunker market remains comparatively well supplied. VLSFO and LSMGO can be delivered in around two days at Hualien and within 2-3 days at Kaohsiung and Keelung, broadly unchanged from last week. Taichung requires slightly longer lead times of 3-4 days.

Across South Korea, bunker demand has softened as higher Brent futures have lifted benchmark prices. Busan’s VLSFO price has climbed by around $60/mt over the past week to approximately $850/mt, according to a South Korean trader.

At the same time, bad-weather disruptions have tightened availability at southern ports including Busan, Ulsan, Masan, Onsan, Yeosu and Kwangyang. Lead times have widened sharply to 9-18 days, from 4-11 days a week earlier. Western ports, including Incheon, Daesan, Dangjin, Pyeongtaek and Taean, are seeing a similar deterioration, with VLSFO, LSMGO and HSFO lead times now at 9-18 days versus 4-11 days previously.

Further weather-related disruptions are expected to affect bunkering at Busan and Ulsan from 3-10 September, Yeosu from 4-10 September, and Daesan on 5-6 September.

In Japan, supply conditions have improved markedly for September. Major refineries have relaxed ex-wharf supply restrictions and monthly allocations to suppliers, making cargo availability considerably more secure than during last month’s severe shortages, a Japan-based trader said.

The improvement is broad-based, although Western Japan continues to experience some tightness. VLSFO, LSMGO and HSFO lead times are around 7-10 days at Tokyo, Chiba and Kawasaki, and 10-12 days at Nagoya, Yokkaichi, Osaka, Kobe, Mizushima, Tokuyama and Oita. Kashima remains constrained for VLSFO and HSFO.

Oceania

In Western Australia, VLSFO availability is steady at Kwinana and Fremantle, with suppliers advising lead times of around seven days. Both ports rely on a single supplier, while all bunker deliveries are made by barge.

Conditions are more mixed along the east coast. Port Kembla can receive VLSFO by truck or pipeline, while Sydney has adequate VLSFO and LSMGO stocks. HSFO is relatively tighter in Sydney, with suppliers generally requiring around seven days’ lead time.

In Queensland, VLSFO and LSMGO remain readily available at Brisbane and Gladstone, with delivery windows of about one week. Further south, VLSFO stocks in Melbourne and Geelong are comfortable, although both ports depend on a single bunker barge, keeping lead times at around seven days. HSFO supply has tightened further in both, Melbourne and Brisbane.

Separately, a supplier is offering all three major bunker grades in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne with lead times of roughly five days.

In Western Australia, pipeline bunker deliveries at Dampier Cargo Wharf (DCW) will remain suspended until around the end of September as repair work continues. Limited truck deliveries are available, depending on vessel size. During the outage, the supplier has designated the Toll Supply Base (TSB) in Dampier as the preferred bunker location, according to a source.

Across the Tasman, New Zealand’s bunker market is largely unchanged. VLSFO remains readily available at Tauranga and Auckland, with suppliers advising lead times of around four days. At Marsden Point, vessels can receive VLSFO and LSMGO directly through pipelines.

Weather remains the main operational risk in New Zealand, with Wellington and ports across the South Island particularly vulnerable to bunker delivery delays during adverse conditions.

South Asia

Bunker supply remains constrained at several Indian ports, with VLSFO and HSFO availability reported as tight in Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Gangavaram, Krishnapatnam, Paradip, Haldia, Chennai, Tuticorin and New Mangalore, according to an India-based source.

Weather could add further pressure to bunker operations in the coming days. Sikka and Kandla may face operational disruptions from 1-5 September, while rough seas are expected to hamper bunkering at Mumbai and Visakhapatnam over the same period.

In Sri Lanka, bunker availability remains healthy across all major grades in Colombo and Hambantota, with one supplier advising lead times of around four days. However, intermittent weather-related disruptions are forecast at Colombo from 1-5 September and Trincomalee from 2-4 September, raising the prospect of delays to bunker deliveries.

Middle East

Renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on bunker fuel availability in Fujairah. VLSFO and LSMGO supply remains tight and largely unchanged from last week, with only a limited number of suppliers able to offer LSMGO. HSFO availability is also restricted.

Supply conditions are more comfortable at nearby Khor Fakkan, where both VLSFO and HSFO remain readily available, according to a Middle East-based source.

In Saudi Arabia, VLSFO and LSMGO availability at Jeddah remains steady despite firmer demand. However, adverse weather could intermittently disrupt bunkering from 1-5 September in Jeddah and 1-3 September in Yanbu.

At Qatar’s Ras Laffan, bunker supply remains constrained, with limited availability of both VLSFO and LSMGO.

Across Oman’s main bunkering hubs — Salalah, Muscat, Duqm and Sohar — LSMGO availability remains stable, with suppliers generally advising lead times of 2-3 days, depending on the port and nomination. Weather-related disruptions remain a risk at Salalah, where adverse conditions are forecast between 1-5 September, according to a source.

Egyptian ports remain operational, but bunker inventories at Port Suez are critically low across all three conventional fuel grades.

Further south, Djibouti continues to face limited availability across all major bunker fuel grades.

By Tuhin Roy

Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online