OPEC holds firm on oil demand growth projections

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.3 million b/d.

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Global oil consumption is expected to average 105.1 million b/d this year, largely unchanged from OPEC's estimate a month ago. Of this, 45.8 million b/d will be consumed by OECD countries, about 160,000 b/d more than last year.

Total world oil demand is expected to be driven by strong air travel and healthy road mobility, OPEC said.

“Capacity additions in the petrochemical industry, particularly in non-OECD countries, mostly in China and the Middle East, are expected to contribute considerably to oil demand growth,” it added.

OPEC has hiked its demand growth forecast for non-OECD countries by around 1.1 million b/d, to 59.31 million b/d this year. It thinks this demand growth will mostly be driven by consumption in China, India and other Asian countries.

Global oil consumption in 2026 is expected to average 106.4 million b/d, OPEC said.

OPEC has revised upward the demand growth forecast for its crude by about 100,000 b/d, to 42.7 million b/d in 2025, and by 200,000 b/d to reach 43.2 million b/d in 2026.

Supply forecasts

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 41.23 million b/d last month, about 180,000 b/d higher than in April.

Oil production by OPEC+’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia, increased by 177,000 b/d on the month to 9.18 million b/d in May. Production in the UAE increased by 27,000 b/d to about 3 million b/d last month.

In May, oil production in Iraq and Iran fell by 50,000 b/d and 25,000 b/d, respectively, OPEC said.

Liquid fuels supply from countries outside the OPEC coalition is estimated to grow by around 800,000 b/d this year, with total output expected to average 54 million b/d. “Growth is set to be driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina,” OPEC said.

The OPEC+ coalition comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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