OPEC maintains global oil demand growth forecast at 2.2 million b/d for 2024
The Vienna-headquartered group now forecasts global oil demand to rise by another 1.8 million b/d in 2025 and reach a record 106.2 million b/d.
PHOTO: An oil pump against the OPEC logo. Getty Images
In its flagship monthly oil market report (MOMR), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects global oil demand growth at 2.2 million b/d in 2024, consistent with the previous month's projection.
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to grow by 300,000 b/d to reach 46 million b/d in 2024, especially in OECD countries in the Americas.
Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by about 2 million b/d to reach 58.3 million b/d in 2024, driven by demand growth in China, India, the Middle East and other Asian regions.
Total world oil demand is forecast to average 104.4 million b/d in 2024, “bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries,” OPEC said.
OPEC expects demand for its crude to be at 28.5 million b/d this year - 1.4 million b/d lower previous month’s assessment - before rising next year.
“Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is forecast to stand at 29.0 mb/d [29 million b/d], which is 0.5 mb/d [500,000 b/d] higher than the forecast level in 2024,” it said in its January MOMR.
Meanwhile, OPEC attributes recent crude oil price volatility to bearish positions by hedge funds and money managers, which has exerted downward pressure on Brent futures.
Supply projections
The coalition expects non-OPEC liquid fuels production to grow by 1.3 million b/d this year - 100,000 b/d lower than its previous assessment.
“The main drivers for liquids supply growth in 2024 are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan,” it said.
OPEC further anticipates offshore projects in Latin America to “substantially support” non-OPEC liquid supply growth in 2024. “At the same time, production is forecast to see the largest decline in Mexico and Angola,” it said.
The core 12 OPEC member countries produced 26.7 million b/d of crude oil in December 2023, marking an increase of 73,000 b/d month-on-month. Crude oil output increased mostly in Nigeria and Iraq, while production fell in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran, OPEC said.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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