OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million b/d for 2025

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 million b/d for 2025 and 2026.

PHOTO: Flags of the OPEC+ countries. Getty Images

Global oil consumption in 2025 is expected to average 105.2 million b/d, OPEC said. Of this, 45.9 million b/d will be used by OECD countries, which are expected to consume 100,000 b/d more than last year.

Demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected to be much greater, at around 1.3 million b/d, reaching 59.3 million b/d this year, the coalition said. "[The demand growth is] mostly driven by requirements from China, in addition to Other Asia, India, the Middle East and Latin America,” the coalition added.

Oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026. “The OECD is forecast to expand by around 0.1 mb/d [100,000 b/d], largely driven by requirements from OECD Americas,” OPEC said. Meanwhile, demand in the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 million b/d, the Saudi Arabia-led group added.

The group has revised up demand growth forecast for its crude by 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.6 million b/d in 2025 and by 200,000 b/d to reach around 42.9 million b/d in 2026.

Supply estimates

The 12 core OPEC members produced an average of 26.68 million b/d of crude oil in January, about 121,000 b/d lower than December’s production levels. Crude oil output mainly increased in Kazakhstan and Libya, while production in the UAE, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia decreased, the Vienna-headquartered group said.

Crude oil production in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two of the largest producers of the group, declined by 13,000 b/d to 8.9 million b/d and 37,000 b/d to 2.9 million b/d, respectively, in January.

Russia produced 8.9 million b/d of crude in January, down by about 27,000 b/d from the previous month, according to the report.

Crude oil production by OPEC+ countries decreased by 118,000 b/d in January compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.62 million b/d, OPEC said.

OPEC+ comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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